exTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates.

exTREEmaTIME: a method for incorporating uncertainty into divergence time estimates.
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DOI:
10.1242/bio.059181
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发表时间:
2022-02-15
期刊:
影响因子:
2.4
通讯作者:
Scotland RW
Scotland RW
中科院分区:
生物学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Carruthers T;Scotland RW

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我们提出了一种发散时间估计方法(exTREEmaTIME),旨在有效地解释发散时间估计中的不确定性。该方法需要一组最小的假设,并且基于这些假设,估计与假设一致的最旧的可能的分歧时间和最年轻的可能的分歧时间。我们使用一系列的模拟和实证分析来说明 exTREEmaTIME 在表示不确定性方面是有效的。然后,我们描述 exTREEmaTIME 如何作为基础来确定更严格的假设的含义,这些假设被纳入其他发散时间估计方法中,从而产生更精确的估计。鉴于这些方法中纳入的许多假设都非常复杂,难以在生物学上证明其合理性,因此可能导致估计结果非常不准确,因此这一点至关重要。摘要:我们提出了一种估计进化时间尺度的方法,该方法做出最少的假设并准确反映不确定性。这使得进化研究人员能够在充分考虑不确定性的情况下测试假设,并确定支撑其他方法的更严格假设的含义。
We present a method of divergence time estimation (exTREEmaTIME) that aims to effectively account for uncertainty in divergence time estimates. The method requires a minimal set of assumptions, and, based on these assumptions, estimates the oldest possible divergence times and youngest possible divergence times that are consistent with the assumptions. We use a series of simulations and empirical analyses to illustrate that exTREEmaTIME is effective at representing uncertainty. We then describe how exTREEmaTIME can act as a basis to determine the implications of the more stringent assumptions that are incorporated into other methods of divergence time estimation that produce more precise estimates. This is critically important given that many of the assumptions that are incorporated into these methods are highly complex, difficult to justify biologically, and as such can lead to estimates that are highly inaccurate. Summary: We present a method for estimating evolutionary timescales that makes minimal assumptions and accurately reflects uncertainty. This enables evolutionary researchers to test hypotheses in contexts where uncertainty is adequately accounted for, and to determine the implications of the more stringent assumptions that underpin other methods.
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