Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions
Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions
复制标题
未来气候条件下高纬度冰川流域水文状况的变化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Hay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Valentin;T. Hogue;L. Hay
使用校准的概念性冰川水文月水平衡模型（MWBMglacier）来评估未来气候条件下阿拉斯加中南部高纬度冰川流域水分配的未来变化。MWBM冰川以前校准和评估对径流测量，冰川质量平衡变化的文献值，和基于卫星的观测积雪覆盖面积，蒸散量和总储水量。来自五个全球气候模式的输出，代表两个未来的气候情景（RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5）与先前校准的参数，以驱动MWBM冰川在2公里的空间分辨率。相对于1949-2009年的历史时期，到本世纪中叶，降水量将增加，山区的气温每年将多两个月高于冰点，这将严重影响雪/雨分配以及雪和冰川融水的产生。1949-2099年期间的分析表明，许多水文制度的变化已经发生或预计发生在研究区，包括冰川堆积区，积雪覆盖区，森林脆弱性。到世纪末，铜河流量预计将增加48%，这是由于相对于历史时期（1949-2009年）增加21%的降水和53%的冰川融水（RCP 8.5）。
A calibrated conceptual glacio-hydrological monthly water balance model (MWBMglacier) was used to evaluate future changes in water partitioning in a high-latitude glacierized watershed in Southcentral Alaska under future climate conditions. The MWBMglacier was previously calibrated and evaluated against streamflow measurements, literature values of glacier mass balance change, and satellite-based observations of snow covered area, evapotranspiration, and total water storage. Output from five global climate models representing two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was used with the previously calibrated parameters to drive the MWBMglacier at 2 km spatial resolution. Relative to the historical period 1949–2009, precipitation will increase and air temperature in the mountains will be above freezing for an additional two months per year by mid-century which significantly impacts snow/rain partitioning and the generation of meltwater from snow and glaciers. Analysis of the period 1949–2099 reveals that numerous hydrologic regime shifts already occurred or are projected to occur in the study area including glacier accumulation area, snow covered area, and forest vulnerability. By the end of the century, Copper River discharge is projected to increase by 48%, driven by 21% more precipitation and 53% more glacial melt water (RCP 8.5) relative to the historical period (1949–2009).
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Hagg, Wilfried;Hoelzle, Martin;Klose, Zbynek
通讯作者：
Klose, Zbynek