Effectiveness of COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders varied by state.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders varied by state.
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DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0245008
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发表时间:
2020
期刊:
影响因子:
3.7
通讯作者:
Griffith KN
Griffith KN
中科院分区:
综合性期刊3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Feyman Y;Bor J;Raifman J;Griffith KN

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各州的“就地庇护”(SIP)命令限制了COVID-19在美国的传播。然而,各州的影响可能有所不同,这为向SIP有效的州学习创造了机会。使用一个新的数据集的州一级SIP命令颁布和县一级的流动性数据来自谷歌,我们使用分层回归不连续性研究设计,以检查SIP在所有实施它们的州的效果。我们发现,SIP订单使全国流动性降低了12个百分点(95% CI:-13.1至-10.9),但各州的影响差异很大,从-35个百分点到+11个百分点。在收入较高,人口密度较高,黑人居民比例较低以及唐纳德·J·特朗普2016年投票份额较低的州,观察到的降幅更大。这表明,在大流行期间,最佳公共政策将因国家而异,不太可能有一种“一刀切”的最佳做法。
State “shelter-in-place” (SIP) orders limited the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. However, impacts may have varied by state, creating opportunities to learn from states where SIPs have been effective. Using a novel dataset of state-level SIP order enactment and county-level mobility data form Google, we use a stratified regression discontinuity study design to examine the effect of SIPs in all states that implemented them. We find that SIP orders reduced mobility nationally by 12 percentage points (95% CI: -13.1 to -10.9), however the effects varied substantially across states, from -35 percentage points to +11 percentage points. Larger reductions were observed in states with higher incomes, higher population density, lower Black resident share, and lower 2016 vote shares for Donald J. Trump. This suggests that optimal public policies during a pandemic will vary by state and there is unlikely to be a “one-size fits all” approach that works best.
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