In situ behavioral plasticity as compensation for weather variability: implications for future climate change
In situ behavioral plasticity as compensation for weather variability: implications for future climate change
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就地行为可塑性作为天气变化的补偿：对未来气候变化的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-018-2248-5
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Noonan M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Noonan M
虽然气候对物种地理分布的影响是有据可查的，但移动的较少的物种必须通过行为可塑性来补偿原位的气候变化。尽管这是一个关键的机制，行为可塑性很少明确建模。在这里，我们使用新的加速度计和有源RFID应答器技术来量化天气驱动的活动，机械能消耗和测距行为的修改，使用欧洲獾作为模型物种。然后，我们研究这些行为如何应对未来的气候变化。从多模型推断，活性促进了显着的二次关系的温度，但抑制了二次关系的湿度和太阳辐射量。更干燥的环境也鼓励了更多的运动。根据IPCC SRES的低排放和高排放气候变化情景建模，预计下一个世纪的温和干燥条件可能会改变獾目前的物候，并在冬季保持较高的活动水平。这种增加的活动可能需要增加高达15%的能量消耗。此外，在高排放情景下预测的情况也可能导致大幅度增加的流动，对道路交通死亡率产生影响。我们认为，行为适应必须更好地纳入保护策略，而不是假设的非适应性失败。
While climatic effects on species biogeographic distributions are well documented, less mobile species must compensate for climate change in situ via behavioral plasticity. Despite this being a critical mechanism, behavioral plasticity is rarely modeled explicitly. Here, we use novel accelerometer and active-RFID transponder technology to quantify weather-driven modification of activity, mechanical energy expenditure, and ranging behavior, using the European badger as a model species. We then examine how these behaviors could respond to future climate change. From multi-model inference, activity was promoted significantly by a quadratic relationship with temperature, but inhibited by a quadratic relationship with humidity, and the amount of solar radiation. Drier conditions also encouraged more movement. Modeled against IPCC SRES low and high emissions climate change scenarios, milder and drier conditions projected for the next century would likely produce a change to badgers’ current phenology, with elevated levels of activity being maintained into the winter. This increased activity could necessitate up to a 15% increase in energy expenditure. Furthermore, conditions projected under the high emissions scenario may also lead to substantially increased movement, with implications for road traffic mortality rates. We contend that behavioral adaptation must be better incorporated into conservation strategies, versus the assumption of non-adaptive failure.
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