Economic impact of typhoon-induced wind disasters on port operations: A case study of ports in China
Economic impact of typhoon-induced wind disasters on port operations: A case study of ports in China
复制标题
台风风灾对港口运营的经济影响：以中国港口为例
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101719
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发表时间：
2020-11
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Carlos Guedes Soares
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yi Zhang;Kai Wei;Zhonghui Shen;Xiwen Bai;Xinzheng Lu;Carlos Guedes Soares
港口中断的影响可能通过全球供应链波及整个经济。考虑到所有风险，确保海上运输的正常运作至关重要。气候事件带来了需要认真应对的挑战性风险。本文提出了一种评估台风风灾造成港口中断的经济损失的方法。以2007年至2017年中国四个港口及其历史台风和货物吞吐量数据为例。本文介绍了一种分析台风风场的风模式。然后根据每个港口的模拟风场结果估计港口中断的可能性。根据港口中断天数和每日货物吞吐量的估计，考虑声誉损失、托运人损失、承运人损失和港口损失，计算各港口的总经济损失。最后，讨论了台风引发的风灾对我国港口运营的经济影响。结果表明，中断时间和吞吐量是关键的经济估计和总成本的主要组成部分是对托运人的损失。该方法直观地反映了港口面临的台风风灾风险，有助于港口管理者在控制港口运营时做出最优决策。
The impact of a port disruption can reverberate across the entire economy through global supply chains. It is essential to ensure the regular operation of seaborne transportation considering all risks. Climate events create challenging risks that need to be carefully addressed. This paper proposes an approach to evaluate the economic losses due to port disruptions caused by typhoon-induced wind disasters. Four Chinese ports and their historical typhoon and cargo throughput data from 2007 to 2017 are taken as examples. A wind model is introduced to analyze the wind fields of typhoons. The likelihood of port disruption is then estimated based on the simulated wind field results at each port. Based on the estimated number of port disruption days and daily cargo throughput, the total economic loss of each port is calculated by considering the reputational loss, loss to the shippers, loss to the carriers, and loss to the ports. Finally, the economic impact of port disruption caused by the typhoon-induced wind disasters on port operations in China is discussed. The results suggest that both the disruption time and throughput are critical in economic estimations and the major component of the overall cost is the loss to the shippers. The proposed method directly reflects the typhoon-induced wind disaster-related risks quantitatively encountered at ports, which could help port managers make optimal decisions in controlling port operations.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
S. Athanasatos;Silas Michaelides;M. Papadakis
通讯作者：
S. Athanasatos;Silas Michaelides;M. Papadakis
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Deng Bo
通讯作者：
Deng Bo
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Yi Zhang;J. Lam
通讯作者：
Yi Zhang;J. Lam
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Hui Shan Loh;Qingji Zhou;V. Thai;Y. Wong;Kum Fai Yuen
通讯作者：
Hui Shan Loh;Qingji Zhou;V. Thai;Y. Wong;Kum Fai Yuen
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Fengbo Wu;Guoqing Huang
通讯作者：
Fengbo Wu;Guoqing Huang