Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.
Next-generation invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0084222
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Leishman MR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Duursma DE;Gallagher RV;Roger E;Hughes L;Downey PO;Leishman MR
自然化但尚未入侵的植物对生物多样性构成了新的威胁。随着气候状况的不断变化，一系列新的入侵者很可能会从已建立的归化植物库中出现。对可能最适合大量潜在入侵植物的地点进行先发制人的管理将有助于有针对性的监测，对有效控制至关重要。我们使用的物种分布模型（SDM）和入侵热点分析，以确定在澳大利亚合适的栖息地可能发生的292归化植物。在MaxEnt中建立了空间数据模型，使用了当前基线条件下的气候和土壤变量。基于七个全球气候模型，在两个时间段（2035年和2065年），模拟关系被预测到未来气候的两个代表性浓度路径（RCP 4.5和8.5）。模型输出的292个物种，然后汇总到单一的“热点”地图在两个尺度：大陆，并为澳大利亚的37个生态区。在整个澳大利亚，大陆东南角和西南角的地区被确定为当前和未来气候下归化植物的潜在热点。在基线气候条件下，这两个地区分别为288种和239种物种提供了适宜的栖息地。在2035年的气候条件下，大陆热点的面积预计将减少8.8%，到2065年将进一步减少5.2%。在未来的气候下，热点收缩的一个类似的模式被认为是大多数的生态区检查。然而，两个生态区-塔斯马尼亚温带森林和澳大利亚阿尔卑斯山山地草原-在2065年的气候情景下，热点的面积范围增加了45%以上。在未来的气候情景下，高山生态区也增加了具有非生物适宜栖息地的归化植物物种的数量，这表明该地区可能特别容易受到归化植物未来入侵的影响。
Naturalised, but not yet invasive plants, pose a nascent threat to biodiversity. As climate regimes continue to change, it is likely that a new suite of invaders will emerge from the established pool of naturalised plants. Pre-emptive management of locations that may be most suitable for a large number of potentially invasive plants will help to target monitoring, and is vital for effective control. We used species distribution models (SDM) and invasion-hotspot analysis to determine where in Australia suitable habitat may occur for 292 naturalised plants. SDMs were built in MaxEnt using both climate and soil variables for current baseline conditions. Modelled relationships were projected onto two Representative Concentration Pathways for future climates (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), based on seven global climate models, for two time periods (2035, 2065). Model outputs for each of the 292 species were then aggregated into single ‘hotspot’ maps at two scales: continental, and for each of Australia’s 37 ecoregions. Across Australia, areas in the south-east and south-west corners of the continent were identified as potential hotspots for naturalised plants under current and future climates. These regions provided suitable habitat for 288 and 239 species respectively under baseline climates. The areal extent of the continental hotspot was projected to decrease by 8.8% under climates for 2035, and by a further 5.2% by 2065. A similar pattern of hotspot contraction under future climates was seen for the majority of ecoregions examined. However, two ecoregions - Tasmanian temperate forests and Australian Alps montane grasslands - showed increases in the areal extent of hotspots of >45% under climate scenarios for 2065. The alpine ecoregion also had an increase in the number of naturalised plant species with abiotically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, indicating that this area may be particularly vulnerable to future incursions by naturalised plants.
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影响因子：
10.1
作者：
Chen, JQ;Saunders, SC;Franklin, JF
通讯作者：
Franklin, JF
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Araujo, Miguel B.;Guisan, Antoine
通讯作者：
Guisan, Antoine
DOI：
10.1177/0309133309341607
发表时间：
2009-06-01
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Gaertner, Mirijam;Den Breeyen, Alana;Richardson, David M.
通讯作者：
Richardson, David M.
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Hughes, Lesley
通讯作者：
Hughes, Lesley
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1276
发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hijmans, RJ;Cameron, SE;Jarvis, A
通讯作者：
Jarvis, A