Improving urban seismic risk estimates for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, through incorporating recently gained geological knowledge of hazards
Improving urban seismic risk estimates for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, through incorporating recently gained geological knowledge of hazards
复制标题
通过结合最近获得的灾害地质知识，改进吉尔吉斯斯坦比什凯克的城市地震风险评估
DOI：
10.1007/s11069-022-05678-0
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Amey R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Amey R
许多城市建在活断层上或附近，这对城市人口构成地震危害和风险。城市扩张可能会掩盖活动断层的迹象，从而加剧这种风险。在这里，我们估计的风险，比什凯克市，吉尔吉斯斯坦，由于现实的地震情景的基础上，在该地区的历史地震和改进的知识的活断层源。我们使用以前的文献和断层图，结合新的高分辨率数字高程模型，以识别和识别故障，构成风险的比什凯克。然后，我们使用全球地震模型OpenQuake引擎估计危险（地面震动），对住宅建筑的破坏和损失分布（经济成本和死亡人数）。我们对可能发生重大地震的各种断层上的历史事件和假设事件进行建模。这包括近端的，公认的，故障，以及故障下折叠在城市的北部，我们确定使用卫星DEM。我们发现，在离比什凯克最近的Issyk Ata、Shamsi Tunduk、Chonkurchak和北方断层上的潜在地震将对城市造成最大的破坏。伊塞克阿塔断层上发生的7.5级地震可能导致7900 ± 2600座建筑物完全受损，另外16,400 ± 2000座建筑物受损，2400 ± 1500人死亡。正确识别、识别和模拟城市附近的活动断层以减少不确定性至关重要，因为将北方断层建模为Mw 6.5而不是Mw 6.0将导致37%以上的建筑物完全损坏和48%以上的死亡。
Many cities are built on or near active faults, which pose seismic hazard and risk to the urban population. This risk is exacerbated by city expansion, which may obscure signs of active faulting. Here, we estimate the risk to Bishkek city, Kyrgyzstan, due to realistic earthquake scenarios based on historic earthquakes in the region and an improved knowledge of the active fault sources. We use previous literature and fault mapping, combined with new high-resolution digital elevation models to identify and characterise faults that pose a risk to Bishkek. We then estimate the hazard (ground shaking), damage to residential buildings and distribution of losses (economical cost and fatalities) using the Global Earthquake Model OpenQuake engine. We model historical events and hypothetical events on a variety of faults that could plausibly host significant earthquakes. This includes proximal, recognised, faults as well as a fault under folding in the north of the city that we identify using satellite DEMs. We find that potential earthquakes on faults nearest to Bishkek—Issyk Ata, Shamsi Tunduk, Chonkurchak and the northern fault—would cause the most damage to the city. An Mw 7.5 earthquake on the Issyk Ata fault could potentially cause 7900 ± 2600 completely damaged buildings, a further 16,400 ± 2000 damaged buildings and 2400 ± 1500 fatalities. It is vital to properly identify, characterise and model active faults near cities to reduce uncertainty as modelling the northern fault as a Mw 6.5 instead of Mw 6.0 would result in 37% more completely damaged buildings and 48% more fatalities.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Solmaz Mohadjer;T. Ehlers;R. Bendick;K. Stübner;Timo Strube
通讯作者：
Solmaz Mohadjer;T. Ehlers;R. Bendick;K. Stübner;Timo Strube
影响因子：
3
作者：
Allen, Trevor I.;Wald, David J.
通讯作者：
Wald, David J.
GEM 全球活跃故障数据库
影响因子：
5
作者：
R. Styron;M. Pagani
通讯作者：
M. Pagani
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Wieland;M. Pittore;S. Parolai;U. Begaliev;Pulat Yasunov;S. Tyagunov;B. Moldobekov;Saidislom Saidiy;I. Ilyasov;T. Abakanov
通讯作者：
T. Abakanov
吉尔吉斯斯坦北部比什凯克附近伊塞克阿塔断层破裂的三场全新世地震的古地震记录
影响因子：
3
作者：
M. Patyniak;A. Landgraf;A. Dzhumabaeva;K. Abdrakhmatov;Swenja Rosenwinkel;O. Korup;F. Preusser;J. Fohlmeister;J. Arrowsmith;Manfred R. Strecker
通讯作者：
Manfred R. Strecker