The June 12, 2017 M6.3 Karaburun-Lesvos earthquake of the Northern Aegean Sea: Aftershock forecasting and stress transfer

The June 12, 2017 M6.3 Karaburun-Lesvos earthquake of the Northern Aegean Sea: Aftershock forecasting and stress transfer
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2017年6月12日北爱琴海M6.3卡拉布伦-莱斯沃斯地震:余震预报和应力转移

DOI:
10.1016/j.tecto.2021.228945
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发表时间:
2021
期刊:
影响因子:
2.9
通讯作者:
Utkucu M
Utkucu M
中科院分区:
地球科学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Utkucu M

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2017年6月12日,卡拉布伦-莱斯沃斯(北爱琴海)地震发生在沿着西北-东南走向的莱斯沃斯断层,沿着北安纳托利亚断层带的南部。在本研究中,研究了2017年卡拉布伦-莱斯沃斯地震及其余震序列的地震构造方面。基于地震波形有限源分析的破裂模型表明,地震与单个粗糙体的破坏有关。主震发生约5天后,在土耳其爱琴海沿岸沿着部署了一个由8个宽带台站组成的临时地震网络(土耳其实时余震预报,RAFT),以加强现有的区域地震监测,并利用所获得的数据重新定位余震。这一临时部署大大提高了余震探测能力,使定位更加准确。在加强监测之前,观察到一个单一的广泛余震群;然而,重新定位的余震,由RAFT台站增强,确定了两个不同的空间孤立的集群。余震序列的第一天已被用于回顾性的实时余震预报长达7天后的主震。我们的结果表明,使用Omi等人(2013)开发的方法,可以成功地利用主震后第一天发生的未完全检测到的余震,预测一周内的余震。对33个余震震源机制的应力张量分析表明,伸展构造以局部为主,三个主应力轴的方位角和倾伏对σ1、σ 2和σ 3分别为(255°; 76°)、(131°; 8°)和(39°; 11°)。由主震引起的余震节面上的库仑应力变化表明,在33次余震中,约67%的余震至少在一个节面上暴露于正应力变化。
The June 12, 2017 Karaburun-Lesvos (North Aegean Sea) earthquake occurred along the NW-SE trending Lesvos fault, along the southern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. In the present study seismotectonic aspects of the 2017 Karaburun-Lesvos earthquake and its aftershock sequence are studied. A rupture model based on finite source analysis of the teleseismic waveforms has shown that the earthquake was associated with a failure of single asperity. About 5 days after the mainshock a temporary seismic network of 8 broadband stations (Real-time Aftershock Forecasting in Turkey, RAFT) had been deployed along the Turkish Aegean coast to enhance the existing regional seismic monitoring and the acquired data have been used to relocate the aftershocks. The temporary deployment significantly improved the aftershock detection capacity and resulted in more precise locations. Prior to the monitoring enhancement a single widespread aftershock cluster was observed; however, the relocated aftershocks, augmented by the RAFT stations, identified two distinct spatially isolated clusters. The first day of the aftershock sequence has been used for retrospective real-time aftershock forecasting up to 7 days following the mainshock. Our results indicate that with a method developed by Omi et al. (2013) can be used forecasting aftershocks over a week period successfully employing incompletely detected aftershocks occurred in the first day following the mainshock. Stress tensor analysis of the 33 aftershock source mechanisms has shown local dominance of the extensional tectonics with azimuth and plunge pairs for the three principal stress axes asσ1,σ2andσ3are (255°; 76°), (131°; 8°) and (39°; 11°), respectively. Coulomb stress changes imparted by the mainshock onto the nodal planes of the aftershocks show that ~67% of the 33 aftershocks have been exposed to positive stress change at least on one of the nodal planes.
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