Efficient estimation of human immunodeficiency virus incidence rate using a pooled cross-sectional cohort study design.
Efficient estimation of human immunodeficiency virus incidence rate using a pooled cross-sectional cohort study design.
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.8661
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发表时间：
2020-10-30
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Tchetgen Tchetgen E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Molebatsi K;Gabaitiri L;Mokgatlhe L;Moyo S;Gaseitsiwe S;Wirth KE;DeGruttola V;Tchetgen Tchetgen E
制定准确估计艾滋病毒发病率的方法仍然是一项挑战。理想的情况是，在纵向研究设计下，对艾滋病毒阴性个体进行随机抽样，并在出现时确定事件病例。这样的设计可能是资源密集型的，因此替代设计可能是优选的。我们提出了这样一个简单的，较少的资源密集型的研究设计，并开发了一个加权对数似然方法，同时考虑选择偏倚和结果误分类错误。该设计基于一项横断面调查，该调查询问个人自上次艾滋病毒阴性检测以来的时间，尽可能用正式文件验证其检测结果，并对所有没有艾滋病毒阳性文件的人进行检测。为了提高效率，我们更新了加权对数似然函数与潜在的错误分类的自我报告，从个人谁不能产生以前的艾滋病毒阴性测试的文件，并通过广泛的蒙特卡罗模拟研究大样本特性的验证子样本与合并样本估计。我们说明了我们的方法，估计发病率的个人谁测试艾滋病毒阴性的1.5年和5年之前，博茨瓦纳联合预防项目招生。本文建立了一个横断面队列研究设计中，通过适当考虑选择偏倚和错误分类错误，可以从个人的测试历史中获得准确的估计艾滋病发病率。此外，与纵向和实验室方法相比，这种方法的资源密集程度明显较低。
Development of methods to accurately estimate HIV incidence rate remains a challenge. Ideally, one would follow a random sample of HIV-negative individuals under a longitudinal study design and identify incident cases as they arise. Such designs can be prohibitively resource intensive and therefore alternative designs may be preferable. We propose such a simple, less resource-intensive study design and develop a weighted log likelihood approach which simultaneously accounts for selection bias and outcome misclassification error. The design is based on a cross-sectional survey which queries individuals’ time since last HIV-negative test, validates their test results with formal documentation whenever possible, and tests all persons who do not have documentation of being HIV-positive. To gain efficiency, we update the weighted log likelihood function with potentially misclassified self-reports from individuals who could not produce documentation of a prior HIV-negative test and investigate large sample properties of validated sub-sample only versus pooled sample estimators through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate our method by estimating incidence rate for individuals who tested HIV-negative within 1.5 and 5 years prior to Botswana Combination Prevention Project enrolment. This paper establishes that accurate estimates of HIV incidence rate can be obtained from individuals’ history of testing in a cross-sectional cohort study design by appropriately accounting for selection bias and misclassification error. Moreover, this approach is notably less resource-intensive compared to longitudinal and laboratory-based methods.
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影响因子：
1.8
作者：
Stefanski, LA;Boos, DD
通讯作者：
Boos, DD
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Rehle TM;Hallett TB;Shisana O;Pillay-van Wyk V;Zuma K;Carrara H;Jooste S
通讯作者：
Jooste S
影响因子：
5
作者：
BROOKMEYER, R;QUINN, TC
通讯作者：
QUINN, TC
影响因子：
2
作者：
Lunceford, JK;Davidian, M
通讯作者：
Davidian, M
DOI：
10.1097/ede.0b013e3181f57571
发表时间：
2010-11
期刊：
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Wirth KE;Tchetgen Tchetgen EJ;Murray M
通讯作者：
Murray M