Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave.
Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2020.0279
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发表时间：
2021-07-19
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
De Angelis D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Birrell P;Blake J;van Leeuwen E;Gent N;De Angelis D
英国受到SARS-CoV-2大流行的严重影响，严格的“封锁”缓解措施现已逐步取消。这里介绍的实时大流行监测有助于提供证据，为整个第一波大流行管理提供信息。5月10日的估计显示，封锁使传播减少了75%，复制数从2.6降至0.61。这种区域差异的影响在伦敦最大，减少了81%（95%可信区间：77-84%）。自那时以来，繁殖数量缓慢增加，6月19日，西南和伦敦两个地区疫情增长的可能性超过5%。到目前为止，估计有8%的人口被感染，伦敦的比例更高（17%）。总体感染致死率为1.1%(0.9-1.4%)，但在75岁以上人群中为17%（14-22%）。如果累积的免疫力和有效的接触者追踪不足以阻止第二波疫情，这项正在进行的工作仍然是量化任何广泛复发的关键。本文是主题问题“塑造英国早期COVID-19大流行应对的建模”的一部分。
England has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe ‘lockdown’ mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management throughout the first wave. Estimates on the 10 May showed lockdown had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally varying impact was largest in London with a reduction of 81% (95% credible interval: 77–84%). Reproduction numbers have since then slowly increased, and on 19 June the probability of the epidemic growing was greater than 5% in two regions, South West and London. By this date, an estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9–1.4%) overall but 17% (14–22%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work continues to be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence, should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
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DOI：
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作者：
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