Agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza circulation: a multisite study in Thailand, Vietnam and Madagascar.
Agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza circulation: a multisite study in Thailand, Vietnam and Madagascar.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0101958
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Chevalier V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Paul MC;Gilbert M;Desvaux S;Andriamanivo HR;Peyre M;Khong NV;Thanapongtharm W;Chevalier V
高致病性禽流感的爆发已经在各种生态系统中发生并得到了研究。然而，这些研究中所考察的空间分辨率、地理范围、分析单位和风险因素等方面的差异妨碍了它们的定量比较。本研究旨在对四种不同环境中家禽中禽流感病毒（AIV）的一组常见农业环境决定因素进行高分辨率比较研究：（1）泰国北部，2004-2005年H5 N1病毒在那里传播，（2）越南的红河三角洲，H5 N1病毒在那里广泛传播，（3）越南高地，（4）马达加斯加的Alaotra湖地区，该地区与亚洲农业生态系统有显著的相似性，并且在那里发现了低致病性禽流感病毒。我们分析了泰国的H5 N1疫情数据，同时收集了越南H5亚型和马达加斯加低致病性AIV的血清学数据。几个农业环境协变量进行了研究：家禽密度，景观占主导地位的水稻种植，接近水体或主要道路，人口密度。使用空间广义线性模型探讨协变量与AIV循环之间的关系。在红河三角洲、越南高原和马达加斯加，AIV的流行与距离最近的水体呈负相关。我们还发现，在越南高原和泰国，AIV和鸭密度之间呈正相关，并与泰国和马达加斯加的水稻景观。我们的研究结果证实了湿地-稻-鸭生态系统在不同环境下AI流行病学中的重要作用。影响东南亚H5亚型传播的变量对马达加斯加的低致病性AIV起了类似的作用，这表明如果引入高毒力毒株，该地区可能处于危险之中。
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza have occurred and have been studied in a variety of ecological systems. However, differences in the spatial resolution, geographical extent, units of analysis and risk factors examined in these studies prevent their quantitative comparison. This study aimed to develop a high-resolution, comparative study of a common set of agro-environmental determinants of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in domestic poultry in four different environments: (1) lower-Northern Thailand, where H5N1 circulated in 2004–2005, (2) the Red River Delta in Vietnam, where H5N1 is circulating widely, (3) the Vietnam highlands, where sporadic H5N1 outbreaks have occurred, and (4) the Lake Alaotra region in Madagascar, which features remarkable similarities with Asian agro-ecosystems and where low pathogenic avian influenza viruses have been found. We analyzed H5N1 outbreak data in Thailand in parallel with serological data collected on the H5 subtype in Vietnam and on low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar. Several agro-environmental covariates were examined: poultry densities, landscape dominated by rice cultivation, proximity to a water body or major road, and human population density. Relationships between covariates and AIV circulation were explored using spatial generalized linear models. We found that AIV prevalence was negatively associated with distance to the closest water body in the Red River Delta, Vietnam highlands and Madagascar. We also found a positive association between AIV and duck density in the Vietnam highlands and Thailand, and with rice landscapes in Thailand and Madagascar. Our findings confirm the important role of wetlands-rice-ducks ecosystems in the epidemiology of AI in diverse settings. Variables influencing circulation of the H5 subtype in Southeast Asia played a similar role for low pathogenic AIV in Madagascar, indicating that this area may be at risk if a highly virulent strain is introduced.
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