Adverse Selection in the Marriage Market: HIV Testing and Marriage in Rural Malawi.

Adverse Selection in the Marriage Market: HIV Testing and Marriage in Rural Malawi.
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DOI:
10.1093/restud/rdaa088
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发表时间:
2021-10
影响因子:
5.8
通讯作者:
Bennett, Daniel
Bennett, Daniel
中科院分区:
经济学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Angelucci, Manuela;Bennett, Daniel

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婚姻市场中的信息不对称可能会导致逆向选择,如果伴侣质量随着时间的推移而暴露,则会推迟婚姻。性安全是一个重要但隐藏的伴侣属性,特别是在艾滋病毒流行的地区。一个具有可观察(吸引力)和隐藏(性安全)属性的积极主动匹配模型预测,消除关于性安全的不对称信息会加速安全受访者的婚姻和怀孕,如果他们也有吸引力,则会更快。频繁的艾滋病毒检测可以使安全的人发出信号和进行筛查。与这些预测一致,我们发现,高频率的“选择退出”艾滋病毒检测干预改变了对伴侣安全的信念,加速了婚姻和怀孕,使基线未婚女性在28个月内结婚和怀孕的概率增加了26%和27%。对于安全和有吸引力的受访者,估计值更大。相反,单一检测干预缺乏这些影响,与文献中的其他HIV检测评价一致。我们的研究结果表明,对艾滋病毒风险的内源性反应可能解释了为什么艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行与系统性婚姻和怀孕延迟同时发生。
Asymmetric information in the marriage market may cause adverse selection and delay marriage if partner quality is revealed over time. Sexual safety is an important but hidden partner attribute, especially in areas where HIV is endemic. A model of positive assortative matching with both observable (attractiveness) and hidden (sexual safety) attributes predicts that removing the asymmetric information about sexual safety accelerates marriage and pregnancy for safe respondents, and more so if they are also attractive. Frequent HIV testing may enable safe people to signal and screen. Consistent with these predictions, we show that a high-frequency, “opt-out” HIV testing intervention changed beliefs about partner’s safety and accelerated marriage and pregnancy, increasing the probabilities of marriage and pregnancy by 26 and 27 percent for baseline-unmarried women over 28 months. Estimates are larger for safe and attractive respondents. Conversely, a single-test intervention lacks these effects, consistent with other HIV testing evaluations in the literature. Our findings suggest that an endogenous response to HIV risk may explain why the HIV/AIDS epidemic has coincided with systematic marriage and pregnancy delays.
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