Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: do it well or not at all.
Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: do it well or not at all.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2458-12-679
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发表时间：
2012-08-20
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Kleczkowski A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Maharaj S;Kleczkowski A
现有的流行病学模型在很大程度上倾向于忽视个人行为对疾病动态的影响。然而，意识到疾病的存在可以使人们改变自己的行为，例如，呆在家里和避免社交接触。这些变化可以用来控制流行病，但它们需要付出经济代价。我们的目的是研究健康个体采取基于个人的社交距离作为一种控制形式的成本和收益。我们的模型是一个叠加在空间网络上的标准SIR模型，没有或增加了小世界相互作用。控制疾病传播的方法是，允许易感个体在其当地社区内出现感染时暂时减少其社会接触。我们把失去社会接触造成的经济成本与减少疫情影响所带来的经济效益进行权衡。我们研究了结果对两个关键参数的敏感性，即个体对风险的态度和意识邻域的大小。根据流行病的特点以及接触与避免感染的相对经济重要性，最优控制是两个极端之一：要么采取高度谨慎的控制，从而在发现疾病后立即通过大幅减少接触来迅速抑制流行病；否则就放弃控制，任由疫情自行发展。当试图控制时，但不够谨慎，导致流行病得到抑制，就会出现最坏的结果。下一个主要结果来自于将个人所知的邻居的大小与可能发生传播的邻居的大小进行比较。当这些规模相匹配时，控制效果最好，当意识社区小于感染社区时，控制效果特别差。无论个体是否能够控制它们，在包含破坏空间结构的远程、小世界联系方面，结果都是可靠的。然而，许多非本地链接的加入最终使控制失效。这些结果对使用社交距离的控制策略的设计具有启示意义：控制太弱或基于不准确的知识，可能会产生比什么都不做更糟糕的结果。
Existing epidemiological models have largely tended to neglect the impact of individual behaviour on the dynamics of diseases. However, awareness of the presence of illness can cause people to change their behaviour by, for example, staying at home and avoiding social contacts. Such changes can be used to control epidemics but they exact an economic cost. Our aim is to study the costs and benefits of using individual-based social distancing undertaken by healthy individuals as a form of control. Our model is a standard SIR model superimposed on a spatial network, without and with addition of small-world interactions. Disease spread is controlled by allowing susceptible individuals to temporarily reduce their social contacts in response to the presence of infection within their local neighbourhood. We ascribe an economic cost to the loss of social contacts, and weigh this against the economic benefit gained by reducing the impact of the epidemic. We study the sensitivity of the results to two key parameters, the individuals’ attitude to risk and the size of the awareness neighbourhood. Depending on the characteristics of the epidemic and on the relative economic importance of making contacts versus avoiding infection, the optimal control is one of two extremes: either to adopt a highly cautious control, thereby suppressing the epidemic quickly by drastically reducing contacts as soon as disease is detected; or else to forego control and allow the epidemic to run its course. The worst outcome arises when control is attempted, but not cautiously enough to cause the epidemic to be suppressed. The next main result comes from comparing the size of the neighbourhood of which individuals are aware to that of the neighbourhood within which transmission can occur. The control works best when these sizes match and is particularly ineffective when the awareness neighbourhood is smaller than the infection neighbourhood. The results are robust with respect to inclusion of long-range, small-world links which destroy the spatial structure, regardless of whether individuals can or cannot control them. However, addition of many non-local links eventually makes control ineffective. These results have implications for the design of control strategies using social distancing: a control that is too weak or based upon inaccurate knowledge, may give a worse outcome than doing nothing.
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影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Blendon, RJ;Benson, JM;Taylor-Clark, K
通讯作者：
Taylor-Clark, K
在非常不同的时间量表上的疾病动态：英国牲畜运动网络上的脚和口径。
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2007.1129
发表时间：
2007-10-22
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kao RR;Green DM;Johnson J;Kiss IZ
通讯作者：
Kiss IZ
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Eames, Ken T. D.;Tilston, Natasha L.;Edmunds, W. John
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2007.1197
发表时间：
2008-06-06
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Caley P;Philp DJ;McCracken K
通讯作者：
McCracken K
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0810762106
发表时间：
2009-04-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Funk, Sebastian;Gilad, Erez;Jansen, Vincent A. A.
通讯作者：
Jansen, Vincent A. A.