Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK.
Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK.
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在非常不同的时间量表上的疾病动态：英国牲畜运动网络上的脚和口径。
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2007.1129
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发表时间：
2007-10-22
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kiss IZ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kao RR;Green DM;Johnson J;Kiss IZ
我们分析了英国牲畜流动网络与两种疾病的动态之间的关系：口蹄疫（FMD），其潜伏期为几天，羊瘙痒病，其潜伏期为几年。对于口蹄疫，预期流行病的时间尺度与网络演化的时间尺度相似。我们认为，在适当的条件下，静态网络分析可以是一个适当的工具，即使相关的时间尺度是相似的，如口蹄疫的疾病动力学的见解。我们发现，一个子类的“链接移动”保持网络结构，因此，删除这些链接有一个显着的影响，对潜在的感染农场的数量，模拟证实了这种效果。相比之下，由于瘙痒症每次接触传播的可能性较低，而且潜伏期较长，静态网络表示可能是合适的;然而，传播模式中的网络特征可能很微弱。羊瘙痒症通知农场更有可能通过在市场上的交易比对照农场相互关联，但是，网络社区结构被证明是较不具有代表性的流行模式比地理区域。这些相互矛盾的指标强调，适当的观察时限和对潜在传染性接触者类型的良好区分是至关重要的，以便网络分析成为一种宝贵的流行病学工具。
We analyse the relationship between the network of livestock movements in the UK and the dynamics of two diseases: foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which has an incubation period of days, and scrapie, which incubates over years. For FMD, the time-scale of expected epidemics is similar to the time-scale of the evolution of the network. We argue that, under appropriate conditions, a static network analysis can be an appropriate tool for gaining insights into disease dynamics even when the relevant time-scales are similar, as with FMD. We show that a subclass of ‘linkage moves’ maintains the network structure, and so removing these links has a dramatic effect on the number of potentially infected farms, an effect corroborated by simulations. In contrast, because scrapie has a low probability of transmission per contact and a long incubation period, a static network representation is probably appropriate; however, the signature of the network in the pattern of transmission is likely to be faint. Scrapie-notifying farms were more likely to be associated with each other via trading at markets than were control farms; however, network community structure proves to be less representative of prevalence patterns than geographical region. These contradictory indicators emphasize that appropriate observation time frames and good discrimination among types of potentially infectious contacts are vital in order for network analysis to be a valuable epidemiological tool.
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