A spatial analysis of the impact of West German television on protest mobilization during the East German revolution
A spatial analysis of the impact of West German television on protest mobilization during the East German revolution
复制标题
东德革命期间西德电视对抗议动员影响的空间分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. L. Kern
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Crabtree;David Darmofal;H. L. Kern
革命集体行动的正式模型表明，“信息级联”在克服集体行动问题方面发挥着至关重要的作用。这些模型强调了有关集体行动参与总体水平的信息如何传达有关他人政治偏好的信息，以及这些信息线索如何让潜在参与者更新他们对参与反政权集体行动价值的信念。在独裁政权中，外国大众媒体往往是反政权抗议活动唯一可靠的信息来源。然而，关于外国媒体是否确实可以充当集体行动的协调工具的有力证据有限。本文利用了 1989 年东德革命期间抗议事件的详细数据集，并利用了东德大部分地区（而非全部地区）可以接收到西德电视广播的事实。通过广泛的考克斯比例风险模型并以丰富的可观察数据为条件，研究发现西德电视的可用性并没有影响抗议事件发生的概率。这里提供的证据并不支持广泛接受的“事实”，即西德电视在东德革命期间充当了反政权抗议活动的协调工具。更广泛地说，它还对通信技术对革命性集体行动的影响的强烈主张提出了质疑。
Formal models of revolutionary collective action suggest that ‘informational cascades’ play a crucial role in overcoming collective action problems. These models highlight how information about the aggregate level of participation in collective action conveys information about others’ political preferences, and how such informational cues allow potential participants to update their beliefs about the value of participating in antiregime collective action. In authoritarian regimes, foreign mass media are often the only credible source of information about antiregime protests. However, limited robust evidence exists on whether foreign media can indeed serve as a coordination device for collective action. This article makes use of a detailed dataset on protest events during the 1989 East German revolution and exploits the fact that West German television broadcasts could be received in most but not all parts of East Germany. Across a wide range of Cox proportional hazards models and conditional on a rich set of observables, it finds that the availability of West German television did not affect the probability of protest events occurring. The evidence presented here does not support the widely accepted ‘fact’ that West German television served as a coordination device for antiregime protests during the East German revolution. More broadly, it also calls into question strong claims about the effects of communication technology on revolutionary collective action.
什么最能解释成功的抗议活动？
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Hussain, Muzammil M.;Howard, Philip N.
通讯作者：
Howard, Philip N.