Causality and initiation of alcohol control policy. A response to Allamani.

Causality and initiation of alcohol control policy. A response to Allamani.
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DOI:
10.1111/dar.13371
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发表时间:
2021-11
影响因子:
3.8
通讯作者:
Purshouse RC
Purshouse RC
中科院分区:
医学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Rehm J;Purshouse RC

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在最近的一篇评论中,Allamani询问如何在流行病学研究中建立因果关系,特别是与酒精控制政策有关的因果关系。流行病学通常使用因果成分模型,其中一个结果的充分原因是由一组不可避免地产生所述结果的最小条件和事件确定的。虽然这一模型在理论上是明确的,但其操作往往涉及概率因素。基于代理的建模的最新进展可能会改善操作。这个模型对酒精控制政策的影响是直接的:所谓的酒精归因分数表示在没有酒精使用的情况下不会发生的发病率或死亡率。
In a recent commentary, Allamani asked how one can establish causality in epidemiological research, and specifically about causality as it relates to alcohol control policy. Epidemiology customarily uses a sufficient-component cause model, where a sufficient cause for an outcome is determined by a set of minimal conditions and events that inevitably produce the stated outcome. While this model is theoretically clear, its operationalisation often involves probabilistic elements. Recent advances in agent-based modelling may improve operationalisation. The implications for alcohol control policy from this model are straightforward: the so-called alcohol-attributable fraction denotes the cases of morbidity or mortality which would not have happened in the absence of alcohol use.
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