Trends in the atmospheric jet streams are emerging in observations and could be linked to tropical warming
Trends in the atmospheric jet streams are emerging in observations and could be linked to tropical warming
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观测中出现的大气急流趋势可能与热带变暖有关
DOI：
10.1038/s43247-023-00792-8
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Woollings T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Woollings T
气候模型预测，为应对持续的气候变化，喷流将向极地方向微弱移动。在这里，我们使用 40 年卫星时代再分析产品重新审视观察到的喷气机趋势，并找到证据表明普遍的极移正在出现。这些趋势的重要性通常较低，并且在数据集之间存在差异，但不同季节和半球之间的相似性值得注意。虽然最近的许多工作都集中在急流对北极变暖加剧的反应上，但观察到的趋势与已知的环流对热带变暖的敏感性更加一致。环流趋势在历史模型模拟的范围内，但在考虑对流层上层温度梯度的伴随趋势时，与模型相比相对较大。因此，在不久的将来应密切监测热带变暖和急流变化之间的平衡。我们假设环流对热带加热的敏感性可能是影响这种平衡的因素之一。
Climate models predict a weak poleward shift of the jets in response to continuing climate change. Here we revisit observed jet trends using 40 years of satellite-era reanalysis products and find evidence that general poleward shifts are emerging. The significance of these trends is often low and varies between datasets, but the similarity across different seasons and hemispheres is notable. While much recent work has focused on the jet response to amplified Arctic warming, the observed trends are more consistent with the known sensitivity of the circulation to tropical warming. The circulation trends are within the range of historical model simulations but are relatively large compared to the models when the accompanying trends in upper tropospheric temperature gradients are considered. The balance between tropical warming and jet shifts should therefore be closely monitored in the near future. We hypothesise that the sensitivity of the circulation to tropical heating may be one factor affecting this balance.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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影响因子：
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