Ecosystem indicators: predicting population responses to combined climate and anthropogenic changes in shallow seas
Ecosystem indicators: predicting population responses to combined climate and anthropogenic changes in shallow seas
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生态系统指标：预测浅海人口对气候和人为变化的综合反应
DOI：
10.1111/ecog.06925
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Trifonova N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Trifonova N
随着应对气候变化的近海可再生能源（ORE）的日益发展，拥挤的海洋正在成为一个紧迫的管理问题。海洋生态系统复杂多样;因此，我们需要新的工具来帮助迅速增加我们对它们可能如何随着气候和人为变化而变化的理解。本研究使用实用的数据驱动贝叶斯网络方法来捕捉生态系统复杂性的模式，并揭示对生态系统功能在空间和时间上至关重要的生态系统驱动因素（即指标）的趋势。生态系统方法评估了过去30年（1990-2019年）内北海四个生境对比鲜明的区域的物理和生物指标及其对种群（丰度/生产力）趋势的影响。进行假设情景，以检查物种/功能群对代表气候和大规模矿石开发影响的物理（温度和分层）以及人为（捕鱼）变化的反应。揭示了明确的模式，包括由物理变化驱动的自下而上的影响与由捕捞驱动的自上而下的影响的动态性质的时间趋势，跨越营养级和栖息地类型。所有四个区域都受到这两种效应的影响;然而，效应的主导性取决于区域：设得兰群岛和奥克尼（自下而上驱动），北海南部（自上而下驱动）。一般来说，自下而上效应较强的地区显示出人口增长趋势，而自上而下效应较强的地区则呈下降趋势。我们的研究结果还表明，有些物种是自下而上（如浮游动物），自上而下（如鱼类）或两者兼而有之（如灰海豹）的更好指标，但指标的强度取决于栖息地类型。特定生境的结果可以更好地了解它们所指示的生态系统变化类型（物理或生物物理），因此可以评估生态系统状况和恢复力的指标，确保对未来浅海可持续管理的权衡进行更具战略性和综合性的评估。
Crowded seas are becoming a pressing management problem with the increased development of offshore renewable energy (ORE) to combat climate change. Marine ecosystems are complex and varied; therefore, we need new tools to help rapidly increase our understanding of how they are likely to change with both climate and anthropogenic changes. This study uses a pragmatic data‐driven Bayesian network approach to capture the patterns of ecosystem complexity and reveal trends of ecosystem drivers (i.e. indicators) important to ecosystem functioning across space and over time. The ecosystem approach assessed physical and biological indicators and their influence on population (abundance/productivity) trends in four regions with contrasting habitats of the North Sea within the last 30 years (1990–2019). What‐if scenarios were conducted to examine species/functional group responses to physical (temperature and stratification) representing climate and large‐scale ORE development effects, as well as anthropogenic (fishing) changes. Clear patterns were revealed, including temporal trends of the dynamic nature of bottom‐up effects driven by physical change versus top‐down effects driven by fishing across trophic levels and habitat types. All four regions are influenced by both effects; however, the dominance of effects was dependent on region: Shetland and Orkney (bottom‐up driven), southern North Sea (top‐down driven). In general, regions with stronger bottom‐up effects showed increasing population trends whereas those with stronger top‐down effects, decreasing trends. Our findings also suggest that some species are much better indicators of either bottom‐up (e.g. zooplankton), top‐down effects (e.g. fish) or both (e.g. grey seal), but the strength of indicator is dependent on habitat type. The habitat‐specific results provide better understanding of what type of ecosystem change they are indicating (physical or biophysical) and therefore indicators that assess both ecosystem status and resilience, ensuring a more strategic and integrated evaluation of trade‐offs for future sustainable management of our shallow seas.
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