Use of Markov Chain Model Based on Actual Repair Status to Predict Bridge Deterioration in Shanghai, China
Use of Markov Chain Model Based on Actual Repair Status to Predict Bridge Deterioration in Shanghai, China
复制标题
使用基于实际修复状况的马尔可夫链模型来预测中国上海桥梁的损坏
DOI：
10.3141/2550-14
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发表时间：
2016-07
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Sun Lijun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Li;Li Feng;Chen Zhang;Sun Lijun
桥梁状况预测是编制桥梁养护预算的关键。自2004年以来，桥梁管理系统已在中国上海的城市桥梁管理中正式使用和推广，并已积累了16，623条桥梁记录。虽然有很多数据记录，但由于数据组成复杂且维修历史多种多样，因此精确预测桥梁老化是困难的。因此，应用马尔可夫链模型作为决策辅助，考虑不同的保护策略。超过66，000个数据记录用于校准模型。该模型考虑了两种保护制度：（a）日常维护和小修和（B）中，大修。修复率是通过实际保护调查获得的。还考虑了空间分布的影响。城市一级的桥梁保护工作不平衡。中心城市的桥梁状况远好于郊区，尽管郊区桥梁的比例（55.6%，2014年）较大。此外，根据桥梁的现状，保护工作普遍不足，在郊区更是如此。中、大修对桥面系和上部结构的影响较大，但对下部结构和全桥的影响较小。因此，目前的养护工作不能从根本上改善桥梁的整体状况。结果，上海的桥梁状况迅速恶化。
Bridge condition prediction is crucial in preparing conservation budgets for the maintenance of bridges. A bridge management system has been formally used and promoted for urban bridge management in Shanghai, China, since 2004, and 16,623 bridge records have been accumulated. Although there are many data records, predicting bridge deterioration precisely is difficult because the data composition is complicated and the maintenance history is varied. Therefore a Markov chain model was applied as a decision aid to consider the different conservation strategies. More than 66,000 data records were used to calibrate the model. The modeling considered two conservation regimes: (a) routine maintenance and minor repair and (b) medium and major repair. The repair rate was obtained through an actual conservation survey. The influence of spatial distribution was also considered. Bridge conservation efforts were uneven at the city level. The condition of bridges in the central city is much better than that of those in suburban areas, although the proportion (55.6%, 2014) of suburban bridges is larger. Furthermore, based on the present status of bridges, conservation efforts have been insufficient generally and even worse in suburban areas. The medium and major repair levels have had a significant impact on deck systems and superstructure but quite a small impact on substructure and the whole bridge. Thus the present conservation efforts cannot improve the overall bridge condition fundamentally. As a result, the condition of bridges in Shanghai has deteriorated rapidly.
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影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Tom Micevski;G. Kuczera;P. Coombes
通讯作者：
Tom Micevski;G. Kuczera;P. Coombes
DOI：
10.1115/1.3424282
发表时间：
1978-06
期刊：
Journal of Applied Mechanics
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Bogdanoff
通讯作者：
J. Bogdanoff
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9445(1994)120:7(2123
发表时间：
1994-07
期刊：
Journal of Structural Engineering-asce
影响因子：
--
作者：
D. Veshosky;C. R. Beidleman;G. Buetow;Muge Demir
通讯作者：
D. Veshosky;C. R. Beidleman;G. Buetow;Muge Demir
影响因子：
--
作者：
Golabi, K;Shepard, R
通讯作者：
Shepard, R
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0887-3801(2003)17:4(230
发表时间：
2003-09
影响因子：
6.9
作者：
G. Morcous;H. Rivard
通讯作者：
G. Morcous;H. Rivard