Four decades of Andean timberline migration and implications for biodiversity loss with climate change.
Four decades of Andean timberline migration and implications for biodiversity loss with climate change.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0074496
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Silman MR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lutz DA;Powell RL;Silman MR
21世纪的快速气候变化可能会导致安第斯山脉热带山地云雾林物种的大量种群减少和灭绝。虽然以前的研究主要集中在物种本身的迁徙上，但交错带可能会对不同于物种的环境因素做出反应。即使物种可以因应气候变化而迁徙，如果交错带不能，它们也可能成为物种迁徙的硬障碍，使交错带迁徙成为了解气候变化情景下物种持久性的核心。我们研究了42年来的航空照片和高分辨率卫星图像，以计算秘鲁高山安第斯山脉保护区内外林线-草原-森林交错带的迁移率。我们发现，与经常放牧和放火的地区相比，保护区内的林线更有可能向上迁移。然而，受保护地区(0.24百万年−1)和非保护区(0.05百万年−1)的比率仅为到2100年与预计气候保持平衡所需比率的0.5%-2.3%。这些交错带的迁徙速率比同一森林中观察到的物种迁徙速率慢12.5到110倍，这表明中海拔和高海拔物种的迁徙存在障碍。我们预计，在未来气候变化下，交错带将成为移民的硬障碍，除非采取密集的管理措施，否则将导致该地区人口和生物多样性的急剧丧失。
Rapid 21st-century climate change may lead to large population decreases and extinction in tropical montane cloud forest species in the Andes. While prior research has focused on species migrations per se, ecotones may respond to different environmental factors than species. Even if species can migrate in response to climate change, if ecotones do not they can function as hard barriers to species migrations, making ecotone migrations central to understanding species persistence under scenarios of climate change. We examined a 42-year span of aerial photographs and high resolution satellite imagery to calculate migration rates of timberline–the grassland-forest ecotone–inside and outside of protected areas in the high Peruvian Andes. We found that timberline in protected areas was more likely to migrate upward in elevation than in areas with frequent cattle grazing and fire. However, rates in both protected (0.24 m yr−1) and unprotected (0.05 m yr−1) areas are only 0.5–2.3% of the rates needed to stay in equilibrium with projected climate by 2100. These ecotone migration rates are 12.5 to 110 times slower than the observed species migration rates within the same forest, suggesting a barrier to migration for mid- and high-elevation species. We anticipate that the ecotone will be a hard barrier to migration under future climate change, leading to drastic population and biodiversity losses in the region unless intensive management steps are taken.
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