Glacial Inception in Marine Isotope Stage 19: An Orbital Analog for a Natural Holocene Climate.
Glacial Inception in Marine Isotope Stage 19: An Orbital Analog for a Natural Holocene Climate.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-28419-5
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发表时间：
2018-07-05
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Tzedakis PC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vavrus SJ;He F;Kutzbach JE;Ruddiman WF;Tzedakis PC
海洋同位素阶段19c （MIS19c）间冰期被认为是全新世的最佳轨道模拟。因此，MIS19c的结束（约777,000年前）可以作为不受人类影响的当代气候系统的代表。由轨道参数和MIS19c末观测到的温室气体浓度驱动的全球气候模式模拟结果比全新世晚期（1850年）工业化前的参考气候低1.3 K。更强的降温发生在北极，那里的海冰和全年积雪大幅扩大。推断出的冰川区域横跨西伯利亚东北部、北美西北部和加拿大群岛。这些位置与过去冰川开始的证据一致，并且受大气环流变化的影响，减少了积雪的消融，增加了降雪的积累。特别大的积雪深度与假定的冰川成核地点相吻合，包括巴芬岛和加拿大东北部群岛。这些发现表明，如果温室气体浓度与msm19 c末一样低，那么现在的气候将容易受到冰川开始的影响。
The Marine Isotope Stage 19c (MIS19c) interglaciation is regarded as the best orbital analog to the Holocene. The close of MIS19c (~777,000 years ago) thus serves as a proxy for a contemporary climate system unaffected by humans. Our global climate model simulation driven by orbital parameters and observed greenhouse gas concentrations at the end of MIS19c is 1.3 K colder than the reference pre-industrial climate of the late Holocene (year 1850). Much stronger cooling occurs in the Arctic, where sea ice and year-round snow cover expand considerably. Inferred regions of glaciation develop across northeastern Siberia, northwestern North America, and the Canadian Archipelago. These locations are consistent with evidence from past glacial inceptions and are favored by atmospheric circulation changes that reduce ablation of snow cover and increase accumulation of snowfall. Particularly large buildups of snow depth coincide with presumed glacial nucleation sites, including Baffin Island and the northeast Canadian Archipelago. These findings suggest that present-day climate would be susceptible to glacial inception if greenhouse gas concentrations were as low as they were at the end of MIS 19c.
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