Climate change impacts on flood peaks in Britain for a range of global mean surface temperature changes
Climate change impacts on flood peaks in Britain for a range of global mean surface temperature changes
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气候变化对一系列全球平均地表温度变化对英国洪峰的影响
DOI：
10.1111/jfr3.12863
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
P. Sayers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Rudd;A. Kay;P. Sayers
极端天气事件的增加导致许多地区的洪水发生和风险增加。虽然正在实施减缓气候变化战略，但人们普遍认为，社会必须适应气候变率和气候变化。传统的气候变化影响研究使用了对未来时间片的预测，通常是针对一系列可能的排放情景。然而，最近有人转而考虑气候变化对全球平均地表温度（GMST）变化的影响，试图鼓励采取行动，避免更高的GMST变化带来更严重的影响。为了支持适应规划，需要更多关于影响的本地化信息。在这里，洪水峰值潜在变化范围的数据是通过将洪水响应面和新的英国气候预测2018结合起来生成的，针对英国1公里网格上的每个河流单元，GMST变化为1 - 4.5°C。结果显示出显著的空间差异，西部的影响明显大于东部，且总体上随着GMST的变化而增加。南方部分地区洪峰变化随着全球平均温度的变化而加速。在不同的适应假设下，洪峰的变化可以转化为洪水淹没和相关洪水风险的变化。
An increase in extreme weather events is leading to increased flood occurrence and risk in many areas. Although climate mitigation strategies are being implemented, it is widely accepted that societies must adapt to climate variability and climate change. Traditional climate change impact studies have used projections for future time‐slices, often for a range of possible emissions scenarios. Recently however, there has been a move to instead consider climate change impacts relative to global mean surface temperature (GMST) change, to try to encourage action to avoid the more severe impacts from higher GMST changes. To support adaptation planning, more localised information on impacts is required. Here, data on the potential range of changes in flood peaks is generated by combining flood response surfaces and the new UK Climate Projections 2018, for every river cell on a 1 km grid across Britain, for GMST changes of 1–4.5°C. The results show significant spatial variation, with impacts typically higher in the west than the east, and generally increasing with GMST change. Some southern regions show flood peak changes accelerating with GMST change. The changes in flood peaks can be translated into changes in flood inundation and associated flood risk under alternative adaptation assumptions.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Bell, V. A.;Kay, A. L.;Reynard, N. S.
通讯作者：
Reynard, N. S.
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Arnell N
通讯作者：
Arnell N