Indicators of climate risk in the UK at different levels of warming
Indicators of climate risk in the UK at different levels of warming
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英国不同变暖程度的气候风险指标
DOI：
10.1088/2515-7620/ac24c0
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Arnell N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell N
对气候变化影响的评估通常使用基于对未来温室气体排放的假设的气候情景，但政策制定者和气候风险传播者越来越多地要求提供关于不同变暖水平影响的信息。本文提供了一套英国气候风险指标的信息，这些指标的变暖水平比工业化前水平高出4摄氏度。结果显示，2摄氏度的气候风险大幅增加，这通常被媒体推断为气候变化的“安全”水平。在2 C的世界里，热浪的机会增加了一倍，影响人类，作物和动物的热应激频率可以增加五倍。降温度日数增加一倍以上，野火危险可增加40%-70%，英格兰农业和水资源干旱频率增加一倍，威尔士洪水频率增加50%。在4摄氏度时，风险的增加要大得多：热浪几乎每年都会发生。随着变暖的加剧，极端寒冷天气的频率有所减少，但并未消除。一项指标随变暖的变化率在英国各地各不相同。对于基于温度的指标，这反映了当前气候的变异性，但对于基于气候的指标，这反映了气候变化的变异性。大多数指标显示，随着变暖程度的增加，风险通常呈线性增加（尽管由于迄今为止经历的变暖，从现在开始，4摄氏度世界的风险变化比2摄氏度世界高出约2.4倍）。然而，一些指标，特别是与极端高温有关的指标，显示出与变暖水平高度非线性的增加。在给定的升温水平上，指标的变化幅度主要是由对不断增加的强迫的估计区域反应的不确定性造成的。
Assessments of the impacts of climate change are typically made using climate scenarios based on assumptions about future emissions of greenhouse gases, but policymakers and climate risk communicators are increasingly asking for information on impacts at different levels of warming. This paper provides this information for a set of indicators of climate risks in the UK for levels of warming up to 4 C above pre-industrial levels. The results show substantial increases in climate risks at 2 C, which is often inferred in the media to be a'safe'level of climate change. In a 2 C world, the chance of a heatwave is doubled, and the frequency of heat stress affecting people, crops and animals can be increased by a factor of five. Cooling degree days more than double, wildfire danger can increase by 40%–70%, the frequency of agricultural and water resources droughts doubles in England, and flood frequency in Wales increases by 50%. At 4 C the increases in risk are considerably greater: heatwaves occur in virtually every year. The frequency of cold weather extremes reduces, but is not eliminated, with increasing warming. The rate of change in an indicator with warming varies across the UK. For temperature-based indicators this reflects variability in current climate, but for rainfall-based indicators reflects variations in the change in climate. Most indicators show a generally linear increase in risk with level of warming (although the change in risk from now is around 2.4 times higher in a 4 C world than a 2 C world because of warming experienced so far). However, some indicators—particularly relating to heat extremes—show a highly non-linear increase with level of warming. The range in change in indicator at a given level of warming is primarily caused by uncertainty in the estimated regional response of to increasing forcing.
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Arnell, N. W.
通讯作者：
Arnell, N. W.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Alan T. Kennedy-Asser;Oliver Andrews;D. Mitchell;R. Warren
通讯作者：
Alan T. Kennedy-Asser;Oliver Andrews;D. Mitchell;R. Warren
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Bell, V. A.;Kay, A. L.;Reynard, N. S.
通讯作者：
Reynard, N. S.
气候变化对一系列全球平均地表温度变化对英国洪峰的影响
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
A. Rudd;A. Kay;P. Sayers
通讯作者：
P. Sayers
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Bachmair, S.;Tanguy, M.;Stahl, K.
通讯作者：
Stahl, K.