The impact of automation on employment: just the usual structural change?
The impact of automation on employment: just the usual structural change?
复制标题
自动化对就业的影响：只是通常的结构性变化吗？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Saviotti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Vermeulen;Jan Kesselhut;A. Pyka;P. Saviotti
我们研究了未来十年自动化对就业的影响，包括宏观层面和实际（类型）部门。为此，我们将多部门结构变化的演化经济模型与劳动经济理论结合起来。因此，我们得到了一个全面的框架，说明应用部门的劳动力转移是如何通过部门内和部门间的抵消效应得到补偿的，特别是被新创建的劳动密集型部门所抵消。我们使用了几个著名的数据集，并对受自动化影响的职业（特别是机器人和人工智能的引入）的就业情况进行了专家预测，以确定哪些行业和职业以及如何面临就业变化。这揭示了“应用”部门自动化造成的潜在就业损失如何被“制造”部门以及补充和第四溢出部门创造的就业抵消。最后，我们研究了几种宏观层面的就业情景，发现人类面临的是“通常的结构性变化”，而不是“工作的终结”。我们提供的政策工具，提高结构性变革的动态效率的建议。
We study the projected impact of automation on employment in the forthcoming decade, both at the macro-level and in actual (types of) sectors. Hereto, we unite an evolutionary economic model of multisectoral structural change with labor economic theory. We thus get a comprehensive framework of how displacement of labor in sectors of application is compensated by intra- and intersectoral countervailing effects and notably mopped up by newly created, labor-intensive sectors. We use several reputable datasets with expert projections on employment in occupations affected by automation (and notably by the introduction of robotics and AI) to pinpoint which and how sectors and occupations face employment shifts. This reveals how potential job loss due to automation in “applying” sectors is counterbalanced by job creation in “making” sectors as well in complementary and quaternary, spillover sectors. Finally, we study several macro-level scenarios on employment and find that mankind is facing “the usual structural change” rather than the “end of work”. We provide recommendations on policy instruments that enhance the dynamic efficiency of structural change.
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Acemoglu, Daron;Restrepo, Pascual
通讯作者：
Restrepo, Pascual