Scenario-based assessment and multi-objective optimization of urban development plan with carrying capacity of water system
Scenario-based assessment and multi-objective optimization of urban development plan with carrying capacity of water system
复制标题
考虑水系承载能力的城市发展规划情景评估与多目标优化
DOI：
10.1007/s11783-019-1200-x
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发表时间：
2019-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Can Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yilei Lu;Yunqing Huang;Siyu Zeng;Can Wang
城市发展计划的环境影响评估和随后的监管措施对人类走向可持续发展至关重要，因为这些计划确定了未来社会经济发展的规模和结构目标。制定了一个评估和优化城市发展计划的三步方法，重点是其对水系统的影响。该方法首先预测不同情景下规划实施对水系统造成的压力，然后将压力与承载能力阈值进行比较，验证系统状态，最后采用多目标优化方法提出调控方案。该方法使水系统承载状态的评估，考虑到社会经济发展的不确定性，并根据不同的决策者的偏好产生多套改进措施。该方法被应用于中国东南部舟山市的情况。评估结果表明，舟山13个分区中有11个分区存在超载问题，潜在压力为承载能力的1.1至18.3倍。作为一项基本的调控措施，环境效率升级可以缓解4个区域的超载，减少9%-63%的压力。产业发展优化情况表明，规划规模压缩24%，产业结构转型，压力可控制在承载力阈值以下。为决策者提供了各种监管方案，包括更合适的规模和结构以及必要的效率标准，可以帮助案例城市接近更可持续的发展模式。
Environmental impact assessments and subsequent regulation measures of urban development plans are critical to human progress toward sustainability, since these plans set the scale and structure targets of future socioeconomic development. A three-step methodology for assessing and optimizing an urban development plan focusing on its impacts on the water system was developed. The methodology first predicted the pressure on the water system caused by implementation of the plan under distinct scenarios, then compared the pressure with the carrying capacity threshold to verify the system status; finally, a multi-objective optimization method was used to propose regulation solutions. The methodology enabled evaluation of the water system carrying state, taking socioeconomic development uncertainties into account, and multiple sets of improvement measures under different decisionmaker preferences were generated. The methodology was applied in the case of Zhoushan city in South-east China. The assessment results showed that overloading problems occurred in 11 out of the 13 zones in Zhoushan, with the potential pressure varying from 1.1 to 18.3 times the carrying capacity. As a basic regulation measure, an environmental efficiency upgrade could relieve the overloading in 4 zones and reduce 9%–63% of the pressure. The optimization of industrial development showed that the pressure could be controlled under the carrying capacity threshold if the planned scale was reduced by 24% and the industrial structure was transformed. Various regulation schemes including a more suitable scale and structure with necessary efficiency standards are provided for decisionmakers that can help the case city approach a more sustainable development pattern.
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系统动力学在义乌市水资源承载力分析中的应用
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Feng, Li-Hua;Zhang, Xing-Cai;Luo, Gao-Yuan
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000101
发表时间：
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10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.028
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期刊：
Environ. Model. Softw.
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作者：
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