ENSURING PERSISTENCE OF MARINE RESERVES: CATASTROPHES REQUIRE ADOPTING AN INSURANCE FACTOR
ENSURING PERSISTENCE OF MARINE RESERVES: CATASTROPHES REQUIRE ADOPTING AN INSURANCE FACTOR
复制标题
确保海洋保护区的持久性：灾难需要采用保险因素
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Possingham
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Allison;S. Gaines;J. Lubchenco;H. Possingham
从长时间和大空间尺度来看，海洋生态系统受到严重干扰的情况并不少见。飓风、石油泄漏、疾病爆发、缺氧事件、有害藻华和珊瑚漂白等事件可能在当地甚至区域范围内造成大量死亡和严重的栖息地影响。虽然海洋保护区的设计者可能认为短期内此类事件的风险较低，但从长期来看，灾难的可能性很大，必须考虑到保护区的成功实施。提高保护区网络性能的一个简单方法是在保护区设计中加入一种机制，用于计算需要多少额外的区域来缓冲保护区对灾难的影响。在本文中，我们开发了一种方法来确定这个“保险系数”：一个乘数来计算额外的储备面积，以确保在给定的“灾难制度”内满足储备的功能目标。我们记录和分析两个相对较好的研究类型的干扰：石油泄漏和飓风的特点。我们研究历史数据来描述灾难制度，储备必须发挥作用，并使用这些制度来说明保险因素的应用。这个工具可以应用于任何储备设计，其目标是由一个可量化的措施，如海岸线的一小部分，这是必要的，以完成一个特定的功能。在没有这种量化措施的情况下，额外面积作为灾难保险的概念可能仍然有用。
When viewed across long temporal and large spatial scales, severe disturbances in marine ecosystems are not uncommon. Events such as hurricanes, oil spills, disease outbreaks, hypoxic events, harmful algal blooms, and coral bleaching can cause massive mortality and dramatic habitat effects on local or even regional scales. Although designers of marine reserves might assume low risk from such events over the short term, catastrophes are quite probable over the long term and must be considered for successful implementation of reserves. A simple way to increase performance of a reserve network is to incorporate into the reserve design a mechanism for calculating how much additional area would be required to buffer the reserve against effects of catastrophes. In this paper, we develop a method to determine this "insurance factor": a multiplier to calculate the additional reserve area necessary to ensure that functional goals of reserves will be met within a given ‘‘catastrophe regime.’’ We document and analyze the characteristics of two relatively well-studied types of disturbances: oil spills and hurricanes. We examine historical data to characterize catastrophe regimes within which reserves must function and use these regimes to illustrate the application of the insurance factor. This tool can be applied to any reserve design for which goals are defined by a quantifiable measure, such as a fraction of shoreline, that is necessary to accomplish a particular function. In the absence of such quantitative measures, the concept of additional area as insurance against catastrophes may still be useful.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Harvell, CD;Kim, K;Vasta, GR
通讯作者：
Vasta, GR