Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050.
Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2111294119
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发表时间：
2022-05-17
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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到2030年，农业甲烷排放量必须比2010年减少11%至30%，到2050年减少24%至47%，才能实现1.5℃的目标。我们确定了在提高动物生产力的同时减少产品甲烷排放的三种策略，以及在不降低动物生产力的情况下减少绝对甲烷排放量的五种策略。在全球范围内，100%采用最有效的基于产品的绝对甲烷排放缓解策略可以在 2030 年实现 1.5°C 的目标，但无法在 2050 年实现，因为缓解效果会被预计的甲烷增加所抵消。在区域层面上，欧洲（而非非洲）或许能够实现对 1.5°C 目标的贡献，这突显了高收入、中等收入和低收入国家面临的不同挑战。为了实现 1.5°C 的目标，与 2010 年的水平相比，反刍动物产生的甲烷 (CH4) 必须在 2030 年之前减少 11% 至 30%，到 2050 年减少 24% 至 47%。一项荟萃分析确定了减少基于产品（PB；每单位肉类或牛奶的 CH4）和绝对 (ABS) 肠道 CH4 排放，同时保持或提高动物生产力（AP；体重增加或产奶量）的策略。接下来，估计了一种 PB 或一种 ABS 策略的不同采用率对 1.5°C 目标做出贡献的潜力。该数据库包含 430 项同行评审研究的结果，报告了 98 项缓解策略，可分为三类：动物和饲料管理、日粮配方和瘤胃操作。进行了按逆方差加权的随机效应荟萃分析。三种PB策略——即提高饲喂水平、降低草成熟度和降低日粮饲料与浓缩物的比例——使每单位肉类或奶的CH4平均减少12%，AP平均增加17%。五种 ABS 策略（即 CH4 抑制剂、鞣质饲料、电子汇、油脂和油籽）使每日甲烷排放量平均减少 21%。在全球范围内，只有 100% 采用最有效的 PB 和 ABS 策略才能实现 2030 年而非 2050 年 1.5°C 的目标，因为缓解效果被牛奶和肉类需求增加导致的 CH4 预计增加所抵消。值得注意的是，到 2030 年和 2050 年，由于同样的原因，低收入和中等收入国家可能无法实现其对 1.5°C 目标的贡献，而高收入国家则可以实现其贡献，因为预计肠道 CH4 排放量仅小幅增加。
Agricultural methane emissions must be decreased by 11 to 30% of the 2010 level by 2030 and by 24 to 47% by 2050 to meet the 1.5 °C target. We identified three strategies to decrease product-based methane emissions while increasing animal productivity and five strategies to decrease absolute methane emissions without reducing animal productivity. Globally, 100% adoption of the most effective product-based and absolute methane emission mitigation strategy can meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050, because mitigation effects are offset by projected increases in methane. On a regional level, Europe but not Africa may be able to meet their contribution to the 1.5 °C target, highlighting the different challenges faced by high- and middle- and low-income countries. To meet the 1.5 °C target, methane (CH4) from ruminants must be reduced by 11 to 30% by 2030 and 24 to 47% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels. A meta-analysis identified strategies to decrease product-based (PB; CH4 per unit meat or milk) and absolute (ABS) enteric CH4 emissions while maintaining or increasing animal productivity (AP; weight gain or milk yield). Next, the potential of different adoption rates of one PB or one ABS strategy to contribute to the 1.5 °C target was estimated. The database included findings from 430 peer-reviewed studies, which reported 98 mitigation strategies that can be classified into three categories: animal and feed management, diet formulation, and rumen manipulation. A random-effects meta-analysis weighted by inverse variance was carried out. Three PB strategies—namely, increasing feeding level, decreasing grass maturity, and decreasing dietary forage-to-concentrate ratio—decreased CH4 per unit meat or milk by on average 12% and increased AP by a median of 17%. Five ABS strategies—namely CH4 inhibitors, tanniferous forages, electron sinks, oils and fats, and oilseeds—decreased daily methane by on average 21%. Globally, only 100% adoption of the most effective PB and ABS strategies can meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050, because mitigation effects are offset by projected increases in CH4 due to increasing milk and meat demand. Notably, by 2030 and 2050, low- and middle-income countries may not meet their contribution to the 1.5 °C target for this same reason, whereas high-income countries could meet their contributions due to only a minor projected increase in enteric CH4 emissions.
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影响因子：
23.2
作者：
Crippa, M.;Solazzo, E.;Leip, A.
通讯作者：
Leip, A.
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Bennetzen, Eskild H.;Smith, Pete;Porter, John R.
通讯作者：
Porter, John R.
DOI：
10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100372
发表时间：
2020-09
期刊：
Global food security
影响因子：
--
作者：
Balehegn M;Duncan A;Tolera A;Ayantunde AA;Issa S;Karimou M;Zampaligré N;André K;Gnanda I;Varijakshapanicker P;Kebreab E;Dubeux J;Boote K;Minta M;Feyissa F;Adesogan AT
通讯作者：
Adesogan AT
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Haering, D. A.;Scharenberg, A.;Hertzberg, H.
通讯作者：
Hertzberg, H.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Ermler, U;Grabarse, W;Thauer, RK
通讯作者：
Thauer, RK