An investigation of the effect of transient climate change on snowmelt, flood frequency and timing in northern Britain
An investigation of the effect of transient climate change on snowmelt, flood frequency and timing in northern Britain
复制标题
短暂气候变化对英国北部融雪、洪水频率和时间影响的调查
DOI：
10.1002/joc.3913
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Crooks
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Kay;S. Crooks
气候变化几乎肯定会影响冰雪过程。即使在低纬度地区，高海拔地区积雪的变化也会对流域水文产生重大影响。本文使用1950-2099年（A1 B排放）的瞬态区域气候模型预测（HadRM 3Q 0）的数据来驱动苏格兰东北部迪河三个嵌套集水区的水文模型，以评估洪水频率和时间的潜在变化，使用年度最大值和移动窗口分析。一些结果也显示在英格兰北方的高地流域。模拟进行了有和没有一个雪模块，以证明降雪/融化的影响，以及这些如何随着时间的推移而变化，并在集水区之间变化。洪水量级和时间的模拟变化是非线性的，日平均流量的大多数变化并不显著。对于较长持续时间（30天）的降雪流量，峰值强度显着降低，特别是对于较小的高海拔Dee集水区，峰值将提前几个月出现（没有降雪的变化通常不显着）。随着降雪过程变得不那么重要，后期有雪和无雪的结果一般会收敛，但由于降雪持续时间不同，不同集水区的收敛时间不同，每日和30天峰值流量的收敛时间也不同。这不仅突出了包括积雪过程的重要性，特别是对于较长时间的流量，但也突出了相互作用的复杂性：物理集水特性，降水发生和温度之间的平衡，以及这种平衡如何改变气候变化将决定对峰值流量的大小和时间的影响至关重要，使其难以概括的结果。
Climate change is almost certain to affect snow and ice processes. Even at lower latitudes, changes in snow cover at high altitudes can significantly affect catchment hydrology. This article uses data from a transient Regional Climate Model projection (HadRM3Q0) for 1950–2099 (A1B emissions) to drive hydrological models for three nested catchments on the river Dee in north‐east Scotland, to assess potential changes in flood frequency and timing using annual maxima and moving‐window analyses. Some results are also shown for an upland catchment in northern England. Modelling is performed both with and without a snow module, to demonstrate the effects of snowfall/melt and how these change through time and vary between catchments. Modelled changes in flood magnitude and timing are nonlinear, with most changes for daily mean flows not significant. For longer duration (30‐day) flows with snow there are significant decreases in peak magnitude, particularly for the smaller higher altitude Dee catchments, with peaks occurring months earlier in future (changes without snow are generally not significant). There is a general convergence in results with and without snow later in the period, as snow processes become less important, but convergence occurs at different times for different catchments and occurs differently for daily and 30‐day peak flows due to the differential effects of snow at different durations. This not only highlights the importance of including snow processes for such catchments, particularly for longer duration flows, but also highlights the complexity of interactions: Physical catchment properties, the balance between precipitation occurrence and temperature, and how this balance alters as the climate changes will each be critical in determining the impact on the magnitude and timing of peak flows, making it hard to generalize results.
蒸发的水文学视角：英国的历史趋势和未来预测
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Reynard N
通讯作者：
Reynard N
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.;Scherer, Martin;Ashfaq, Moetasim
通讯作者：
Ashfaq, Moetasim