Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming.
Response of snow-dependent hydrologic extremes to continued global warming.
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1732
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Ashfaq, Moetasim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.;Scherer, Martin;Ashfaq, Moetasim
积雪对北半球的水资源供应至关重要，这引起了人们的担忧，即全球变暖可能对依赖积雪的地区的自然和人类系统产生重要影响。虽然已经观测到区域水文变化（例如），但积雪和融雪极端变化出现的时间仍然是评估气候变化影响的一个关键未知因素。我们发现，CMIP5全球气候模式集合显示北半球即将向低雪年转变，北美西部、欧洲东北部和大喜马拉雅地区在近几十年和全球变暖2°C时表现出最强的出现。到21世纪后期，极低雪年的出现变得普遍，同样普遍的还有极高的季初融雪量和径流量（意味着洪水风险增加）和极低的季末融雪量和径流量（意味着水资源压力增加）。我们的研究结果表明，如果全球变暖超过工业化前基线2°C，那么在未来30年内，北半球许多依赖雪的地区可能会遭受来自低雪年和以雪为主的水资源极端变化的越来越大的压力。
Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the northern hemisphere , raising concern that global warming could have important impacts on natural and human systems in snow-dependent regions . Although regional hydrologic changes have been observed (e.g., ), the time of emergence of extreme changes in snow accumulation and melt remains a key unknown for assessing climate change impacts . We find that the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble exhibits an imminent shift towards low snow years in the northern hemisphere, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe, and the Greater Himalaya showing the strongest emergence during the near-term decades and at 2°C global warming. The occurrence of extremely low snow years becomes widespread by the late-21st century, as do the occurrence of extremely high early-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing flood risk), and extremely low late-season snowmelt and runoff (implying increasing water stress). Our results suggest that many snow-dependent regions of the northern hemisphere are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years within the next three decades, and from extreme changes in snow-dominated water resources if global warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline.
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影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Rogelj, Joeri;Meinshausen, Malte;Knutti, Reto
通讯作者：
Knutti, Reto
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Westerling, A. L.;Hidalgo, H. G.;Swetnam, T. W.
通讯作者：
Swetnam, T. W.
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
Burbank, Douglas W.
影响因子：
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作者：
Rood, Stewart B.;Pan, Jason;Shepherd, Anita
通讯作者：
Shepherd, Anita
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Yin, JH
通讯作者：
Yin, JH