Conditions for eradicating hepatitis C in people who inject drugs: A fibrosis aware model of hepatitis C virus transmission.
Conditions for eradicating hepatitis C in people who inject drugs: A fibrosis aware model of hepatitis C virus transmission.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.01.030
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发表时间：
2016-04-21
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Lima VD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rozada I;Coombs D;Lima VD
据估计，80%的新丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）感染发生在注射毒品（PWID）的人群中。从这一人群中根除HCV是完全根除这种疾病的关键，而简单易用、高效治疗的出现可以想象使这种情况成为可能。本文提出了一个数学模型，其中研究了HCV在PWID模拟人群中的传播，其中明确跟踪纤维化进展。确定HCV是否将继续流行或根除的稳定性阈值建立了数值，并分析了简化版本的模型。在新的高效治疗的背景下，确定了发生根除的检测条件和治疗率。结果表明，在不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华的PWID人群中根除HCV是可以实现的，但检测率，尤其是治疗率需要从目前的水平显著提高。参数估计值来自已发表的数据。
It is estimated that 80% of new hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections occur among people who inject drugs (PWID). Eradicating HCV from this population is key for the complete eradication of the disease, and the advent of simple to use, high efficacy treatments could conceivably make this scenario possible. This paper presents a mathematical model where transmission of HCV is studied in a simulated population of PWID where fibrosis progression is explicitly tracked. The stability thresholds that determine whether HCV will remain endemic or become eradicated were established numerically, and analytically on a reduced version of the model. Conditions on testing and treatment rates for eradication to occur were determined, within the context of the new high efficacy therapies. The results show that HCV eradication in the PWID population of the Vancouver, BC test scenario is achievable, but testing and especially treatment rates will need to increase significantly from current rates. Parameter estimates were drawn from published data.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1440-1746.2010.06238.x
发表时间：
2010-07-01
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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