Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits.
Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits.
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12577
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发表时间：
2014-09
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Biesmeijer JC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Polce C;Garratt MP;Termansen M;Ramirez-Villegas J;Challinor AJ;Lappage MG;Boatman ND;Crowe A;Endalew AM;Potts SG;Somerwill KE;Biesmeijer JC
了解气候变化如何影响作物-授粉媒介系统有助于预测作物与其授粉媒介之间潜在的地理不匹配，从而确定容易失去授粉服务的地区。我们研究了英国果园物种（苹果、梨、李子和其他顶级水果）及其授粉媒介的分布，以及根据 SRES A1B 排放情景预测的 2050 年当前和未来气候条件。我们使用授粉媒介可用性的相对指数作为授粉服务的代理。目前，果园与其授粉媒介之间存在很大的空间重叠，但对 2050 年的预测显示，最适合果园的区域对应于授粉媒介的低可用性。然而，我们发现，在目前用于水果生产的地区，授粉媒介的可用性可能持续存在，预计这些地区未来将为果园物种提供次优的环境适宜性。我们的结果可用于确定缓解方案，以保护英国果园生产免受未来 50 年授粉失败的风险；例如，选择适应未来气候条件的果树品种，或者通过改善景观资源来增加野生授粉媒介。我们的方法可以很容易地应用于其他地区和作物系统，并扩展到包括不同的气候情景。
Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Garibaldi, Lucas A.;Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf;Klein, Alexandra M.
通讯作者：
Klein, Alexandra M.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Chen, I-Ching;Hill, Jane K.;Thomas, Chris D.
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Thomas, Chris D.
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作者：
Castro, Silvia;Loureiro, Joao;Navarro, Luis
通讯作者：
Navarro, Luis
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Veldtman, Ruan
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Carvalheiro LG;Kunin WE;Keil P;Aguirre-Gutiérrez J;Ellis WN;Fox R;Groom Q;Hennekens S;Van Landuyt W;Maes D;Van de Meutter F;Michez D;Rasmont P;Ode B;Potts SG;Reemer M;Roberts SP;Schaminée J;WallisDeVries MF;Biesmeijer JC
通讯作者：
Biesmeijer JC