Analysis of heterogeneous dengue transmission in Guangdong in 2014 with multivariate time series model.
Analysis of heterogeneous dengue transmission in Guangdong in 2014 with multivariate time series model.
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2014年广东省登革热异质传播的多元时间序列模型分析
DOI：
10.1038/srep33755
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发表时间：
2016-09-26
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Huang J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cheng Q;Lu X;Wu JT;Liu Z;Huang J
广东经历了近代史上最大规模的登革热疫情。2014年，登革热病例数是过去10年中最高的，占所有病例的90%以上。为了分析登革热的异质性传播，一个多变量的时间序列模型分解登革热的风险加性为地方性，自回归和时空成分被用来模拟登革热的传播。此外，在模型中引入了随机效应来处理异质性登革热传播和发病水平，并将幂律方法嵌入到模型中以考虑空间相互作用。自回归分量的空间变异很小。相反地，在地方病成分方面，珠江三角洲地区与其馀地区之间则有明显的异质性。对于时空的组成部分，有相当大的异质性，在西部和东部的一些部门的最高值跨地区。结果表明，通过聚类分析，发现了驱动登革热传播的模式。地方病成分的贡献在珠江三角洲地区似乎很重要，那里的发病率很高（95/10万），而发病率相对较低的地区（4/10万）高度依赖于时空传播和局部自回归。
Guangdong experienced the largest dengue epidemic in recent history. In 2014, the number of dengue cases was the highest in the previous 10 years and comprised more than 90% of all cases. In order to analyze heterogeneous transmission of dengue, a multivariate time series model decomposing dengue risk additively into endemic, autoregressive and spatiotemporal components was used to model dengue transmission. Moreover, random effects were introduced in the model to deal with heterogeneous dengue transmission and incidence levels and power law approach was embedded into the model to account for spatial interaction. There was little spatial variation in the autoregressive component. In contrast, for the endemic component, there was a pronounced heterogeneity between the Pearl River Delta area and the remaining districts. For the spatiotemporal component, there was considerable heterogeneity across districts with highest values in some western and eastern department. The results showed that the patterns driving dengue transmission were found by using clustering analysis. And endemic component contribution seems to be important in the Pearl River Delta area, where the incidence is high (95 per 100,000), while areas with relatively low incidence (4 per 100,000) are highly dependent on spatiotemporal spread and local autoregression.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2015.0468
发表时间：
2015-10-06
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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