How human location-specific contact patterns impact spatial transmission between populations?-猫眼课题宝

人类特定位置的接触模式如何影响人群之间的空间传播？

DOI：

10.1038/srep01468

发表时间：

2013

期刊：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

影响因子：

4.6

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

综合性期刊3区

文献类型：

作者：

Wang, Lin;Wang, Zhen;Zhang, Yan;Li, Xiang

来源链接：

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3601479/?report=classic

结构种群模型已被广泛应用于研究人类社会中流行病的空间传播。许多开创性的工作已经证明了人类流动对流行病阈值的影响，假设个人的接触模式是均匀混合的。受现实中与位置相关因素的最新研究成果的启发，我们将两类具有位置特异性的异质人类接触模式引入到基于通勤和传染过程的唯象模型中，这两类接触模式显著降低了疾病的流行阈值，从而有利于疾病的爆发.更详细地说，我们发现，一个单调模式的疾病流行率的方差依赖于目的地驱动的接触场景下的接触率，而在原产地驱动的情况下，提高接触率违反直觉地削弱了疾病流行率在一些参数制度。将人类接触的异质性包括在内，预计将为公共卫生影响提供有价值的支持。

The structured-population model has been widely used to study the spatial transmission of epidemics in human society. Many seminal works have demonstrated the impact of human mobility on the epidemic threshold, assuming that the contact pattern of individuals is mixing homogeneously. Inspired by the recent evidence of location-related factors in reality, we introduce two categories of location-specific heterogeneous human contact patterns into a phenomenological model based on the commuting and contagion processes, which significantly decrease the epidemic threshold and thus favor the outbreak of diseases. In more detail, we find that a monotonic mode presents for the variance of disease prevalence in dependence on the contact rates under the destination-driven contact scenario; while under the origin-driven scenario, enhancing the contact rate counterintuitively weakens the disease prevalence in some parametric regimes. The inclusion of heterogeneity of human contacts is expected to provide valuable support to public health implications.