Robustly forecasting maize yields in Tanzania based on climatic predictors.
Robustly forecasting maize yields in Tanzania based on climatic predictors.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-76315-8
复制
发表时间：
2020-11-12
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Gornott C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Laudien R;Schauberger B;Makowski D;Gornott C
Seasonal yield forecasts are important to support agricultural development programs and can contribute to improved food security in developing countries. Despite their importance, no operational forecasting system on sub-national level is yet in place in Tanzania. We develop a statistical maize yield forecast based on regional yield statistics in Tanzania and climatic predictors, covering the period 2009–2019. We forecast both yield anomalies and absolute yields at the sub-national scale about 6 weeks before the harvest. The forecasted yield anomalies (absolute yields) have a median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.72 (0.79) in the out-of-sample cross validation, which corresponds to a median root mean squared error of 0.13 t/ha for absolute yields. In addition, we perform an out-of-sample variable selection and produce completely independent yield forecasts for the harvest year 2019. Our study is potentially applicable to other countries with short time series of yield data and inaccessible or low quality weather data due to the usage of only global climate data and a strict and transparent assessment of the forecasting skill.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Funk, C.;Hoell, A.;Husak, G.
通讯作者：
Husak, G.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1323058111
发表时间：
2014-02-11
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Ludescher, Josef;Gozolchiani, Avi;Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
通讯作者：
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Malley, Z. J. U.;Taeb, M.;Matsumoto, T.
通讯作者：
Matsumoto, T.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1917007117
发表时间：
2020-01-07
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Meng, Jun;Fan, Jingfang;Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
通讯作者：
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Huang, Boyin;Thorne, Peter W.;Zhang, Huai-Min
通讯作者：
Zhang, Huai-Min