Epidemiological features of COVID-19 patients with prolonged incubation period and its implications for controlling the epidemics in China.
Epidemiological features of COVID-19 patients with prolonged incubation period and its implications for controlling the epidemics in China.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12889-021-12337-9
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发表时间：
2021-12-09
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Liu W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang ZJ;Che TL;Wang T;Zhao H;Hong J;Su Q;Zhang HY;Zhou SX;Teng AY;Zhang YY;Yang Y;Fang LQ;Liu W
在临床实践和密切接触者追踪中报告了潜伏期较长的COVID-19患者，但其流行病学或临床特征仍然模糊。我们分析了2020年1月至8月期间中国报告的11，425例COVID-19病例。分别采用加速失效时间模型、Logistic回归模型和改良Poisson回归模型研究潜伏期延长的决定因素及其与临床严重程度和遗传性的关系。在本地病例中，268例（10.2%）的潜伏期延长至> 14天，这在老年患者、居住在华南地区、在实施I级应对措施后发病或在公共场所暴露的患者中更为常见。潜伏期延长的患者发生严重疾病的风险较低（OR调整后= 0.386，95% CI：0.203-0.677）。与潜伏期≤14天的原发患者相比，潜伏期延长的原发患者（50.4，95% CI：32.3-78.6%）的传播率降低。该研究提供了证据支持超过10%的COVID-19潜伏期延长超过2周。在极端情况下，隔离或可能接触SARS-CoV-2的人员的监测期超过14天是合理的，特别是对老年人。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s12889-021-12337-9获得。
COVID-19 patients with long incubation period were reported in clinical practice and tracing of close contacts, but their epidemiological or clinical features remained vague. We analyzed 11,425 COVID-19 cases reported between January–August, 2020 in China. The accelerated failure time model, Logistic and modified Poisson regression models were used to investigate the determinants of prolonged incubation period, as well as their association with clinical severity and transmissibility, respectively. Among local cases, 268 (10.2%) had a prolonged incubation period of > 14 days, which was more frequently seen among elderly patients, those residing in South China, with disease onset after Level I response measures administration, or being exposed in public places. Patients with prolonged incubation period had lower risk of severe illness (ORadjusted = 0.386, 95% CI: 0.203–0.677). A reduced transmissibility was observed for the primary patients with prolonged incubation period (50.4, 95% CI: 32.3–78.6%) than those with an incubation period of ≤14 days. The study provides evidence supporting a prolonged incubation period that exceeded 2 weeks in over 10% for COVID-19. Longer monitoring periods than 14 days for quarantine or persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 should be justified in extreme cases, especially for those elderly. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12337-9.
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期刊：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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