An Integrated Modelling Approach for Flood Simulation in the Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin, China

An Integrated Modelling Approach for Flood Simulation in the Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin, China
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中国城市化秦淮河流域洪水模拟的综合建模方法

DOI:
10.1007/s11269-020-02614-4
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发表时间:
2020-07
影响因子:
4.3
通讯作者:
Xu Chong-Yu
Xu Chong-Yu
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Li Runjie;Du Jinkang;Bian Guodong;Wang Yuefeng;Chen Changchun;Zhang Xueliang;Li Maohua;Wang Shanshan;Wu Senyao;Xie Shunping;Yang Long;Xu Chong-Yu

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由于地表特性的时空异质性,城市化流域洪水响应的准确模拟和预测仍然是一个巨大的挑战。我们在此提出一种集成建模方法,由半分布式概念水文模型和新颖的参数化策略组成。该建模方法将新安江(XAJ)模型、太湖流域(TB)模型和纳什瞬时单位过程线(IUH)集成到一个框架中。通过优化模型参数与相应物理因素的关系来校准模型参数。所提出的建模方法应用于中国秦淮河流域(QRB)。该建模方法在洪水模拟中显示了令人满意的性能,用于校准和验证 QRB 洪水事件。该方法通过使用参数值和物理因素之间已建立的关系来具有时间和空间预测能力。稳健性分析表明,用于参数关系校准的不同洪水事件组导致了相似的模型性能。数值实验表明,不透水覆盖对模型性能有很大影响,在中小强度洪水事件的洪水演进模拟中需要考虑不透水覆盖。
The accurate simulation and prediction of flood response in urbanized basins remains a great challenge due to the spatial and temporal heterogeneities in land surface properties. We hereby propose an integrated modelling approach that consists of a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model and a novel parameterization strategy. The modelling approach integrates the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model, Taihu Basin (TB) model, and Nash instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) into a framework. Model parameters are calibrated by optimizing their relationships with corresponding physical factors. The proposed modelling approach is applied in the Qinhuai River basin (QRB), China. The modelling approach shows satisfactory performance in flood simulation both for calibration and validation of flood events in the QRB. The approach has temporal and spatial prediction capability by using the established relationships between parameter values and physical factors. Robustness analysis reveals that the different sets of flood events used for parameter relationship calibration led to similar model performance. Numerical experiments show that impervious coverage poses strong influences on the model performance and needs to be considered in flood routing simulations for small- or medium-intensity flood events.
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