Incorporating habitat distribution in wildlife disease models: conservation implications for the threat of squirrelpox on the Isle of Arran
Incorporating habitat distribution in wildlife disease models: conservation implications for the threat of squirrelpox on the Isle of Arran
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将栖息地分布纳入野生动物疾病模型：对阿伦岛松鼠痘威胁的保护影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Andrew White
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Morag F. Macpherson;Ross S. Davidson;D. Duncan;P. Lurz;Andrew Jarrott;Andrew White
新出现的传染病是对当地人口的重大威胁。疾病通过未受感染的土著人口的传播将取决于人口和疾病参数，以及栖息地的适宜性和连通性。使用松鼠痘病毒（SQPV）的潜在传播的阿兰岛作为一个案例研究，我们开发的数学模型来研究一个新出现的疾病对人口的影响，在一个复杂的景观不同的栖息地类型。此外，通过考虑一系列疾病参数，我们更普遍地推断复杂的景观如何与疾病特征相互作用，以确定疾病的传播和持续性。具体的研究结果表明，阿兰的SQPV爆发可能是短暂的，并局限于传入点，使红松鼠恢复到感染前的密度;这对红松鼠的保护具有重要意义。更一般地说，我们发现疾病传播的程度取决于感染通过连接优质栖息地的劣质走廊的罕见通道。急性、高度传染性的传染病预计会迅速蔓延，造成高死亡率。尽管如此，这种疾病通常会在当地流行后逐渐消失，并且不会得到长期支持。预计慢性传染病的传播速度较慢，但仍可能在人群中流行。这使得该疾病在长期内更广泛地传播，因为它增加了在联系不紧密的人群之间传播的机会。我们的研究结果强调了在考虑保护策略以保护本地物种免受疾病威胁时，对景观连通性的详细了解是至关重要的。
Emerging infectious diseases are a substantial threat to native populations. The spread of disease through naive native populations will depend on both demographic and disease parameters, as well as on habitat suitability and connectivity. Using the potential spread of squirrelpox virus (SQPV) on the Isle of Arran as a case study, we develop mathematical models to examine the impact of an emerging disease on a population in a complex landscape of different habitat types. Furthermore, by considering a range of disease parameters, we infer more generally how complex landscapes interact with disease characteristics to determine the spread and persistence of disease. Specific findings indicate that a SQPV outbreak on Arran is likely to be short lived and localized to the point of introduction allowing recovery of red squirrels to pre‐infection densities; this has important consequences for the conservation of red squirrels. More generally, we find that the extent of disease spread is dependent on the rare passage of infection through poor quality corridors connecting good quality habitats. Acute, highly transmissible infectious diseases are predicted to spread rapidly causing high mortality. Nonetheless, the disease typically fades out following local epidemics and is not supported in the long term. A chronic infectious disease is predicted to spread more slowly but can remain endemic in the population. This allows the disease to spread more extensively in the long term as it increases the chance of spread between poorly connected populations. Our results highlight how a detailed understanding of landscape connectivity is crucial when considering conservation strategies to protect native species from disease threats.
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Morse SS
通讯作者：
Morse SS