Evaluating the impact of stay-at-home orders on the time to reach the peak burden of Covid-19 cases and deaths: does timing matter?
Evaluating the impact of stay-at-home orders on the time to reach the peak burden of Covid-19 cases and deaths: does timing matter?
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评估居住命令对达到COVID-19案件的最高负担的时间的影响：时机至关重要吗？
DOI：
10.1186/s12889-020-09817-9
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发表时间：
2020-11-23
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Klausner JD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Medline A;Hayes L;Valdez K;Hayashi A;Vahedi F;Capell W;Sonnenberg J;Glick Z;Klausner JD
流行病和社会疏远措施的经济、心理和社会影响促使迫切需要确定非药物干预(NPI)的效果，特别是那些被认为最严格的干预措施，如居家和自我隔离命令。这项研究特别关注国内和国际上的在家订单对新冠肺炎控制权的影响。我们在2020年4月至5月进行了一项观察性分析，包括已知的全职订单的国家和美国各州。我们的主要风险敞口是从第一个报告的新冠肺炎病例之日起到每个地区实施的居家强制令之间的时间。我们的主要结果是从第一个报告病例到每日病例和每日死亡人数最高的时间。我们进行了线性回归分析，控制了每个地区的暴发病例比率。对于国家和美国各州来说，从第一个报告病例到在家待着的时间越长，达到每日病例和死亡人数峰值的时间就越长。最大的影响是在被归类为执行任务的最新10%的地区中，在美国，该地区预测病例高峰数量将额外增加35.3万 天(95%CI：18.252.5)，死亡高峰数量将增加38.3万 天(95%CI：23.653.0)。我们的研究支持了两国和美国各州全职工作订单的时间与病例和死亡人数达到峰值的时间之间的关联。执行任务较晚的区域经历了较长时间才达到每日病例数和死亡人数的高峰。
The economic, psychological, and social impact of pandemics and social distancing measures prompt the urgent need to determine the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), especially those considered most stringent such as stay-at-home and self-isolation mandates. This study focuses specifically on the impact of stay-at-home orders, both nationally and internationally, on the control of COVID-19. We conducted an observational analysis from April to May 2020 and included both countries and US states with known stay-at-home orders. Our primary exposure was the time between the date of the first reported case of COVID-19 to an implemented stay-at-home mandate for each region. Our primary outcomes were the time from the first reported case to the highest number of daily cases and daily deaths. We conducted linear regression analyses, controlling for the case rate of the outbreak in each respective region. For countries and US states, a longer period of time between the first reported case and stay-at-home mandates was associated with a longer time to reach both the peak daily case and death counts. The largest effect was among regions classified as the latest 10% to implement a mandate, which in the US, predicted an extra 35.3 days (95% CI: 18.2, 52.5) to the peak number of cases, and 38.3 days (95% CI: 23.6, 53.0) to the peak number of deaths. Our study supports the association between the timing of stay-at-home orders and the time to peak case and death counts for both countries and US states. Regions in which mandates were implemented late experienced a prolonged duration to reaching both peak daily case and death counts.
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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