Temporal Stability of Risk Attitudes and the Impact of Adverse Shocks—A Panel Data Analysis from Thailand and Vietnam
Temporal Stability of Risk Attitudes and the Impact of Adverse Shocks—A Panel Data Analysis from Thailand and Vietnam
复制标题
风险态度的时间稳定性和不利冲击的影响——泰国和越南的面板数据分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.07.020
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Sabine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liebenehm;Sabine
外源负面冲击和内在风险态度是发展中国家农村家庭贫困恶性循环的两个重要因素。最近的经验研究表明，不利冲击--贫穷的一个关键驱动因素--可以引发穷人风险态度的重大变化，导致他们在贫困中长期生活的决定。虽然风险态度的时间变异性是一个有争议的话题，但倡导风险态度的时间变异性的文献表明，协变量冲击，如自然灾害，会随着时间的推移改变风险态度，而特质冲击则没有这种显著影响。本文旨在测试泰国和越南农村家庭风险态度的时间稳定性，以确定这种模式-影响风险态度的协变量冲击和不影响风险态度的特质冲击-是否可以被证实。我用一个外生的冲击指标来解释风险态度的时间变化。因此，我使用一个多水平模型来估计消费的差异，在该模型中，个人层面的消费差异是特质冲击的替代，而总体层面的消费差异被用来衡量协变量冲击。我的研究发现，风险态度的时间差异是由越南的协变量冲击驱动的，与过去的研究相反，是由泰国的特质冲击驱动的。结果表明，越南受访者在投保特质风险方面可能更好，例如通过安全网，而在泰国，个人之间的相互保险似乎并不奏效。此外，结果显示，泰国的相互保险问题似乎在财富方面有所增加。我发现泰国和越南之间以及不同贫困类型之间的差异对应于政治制度的差异，因此也是社会政治措施的重点。泰国最近的政治动荡和泰国社会日益缺乏社会凝聚力支持了这些发现。
Exogenous negative shocks and intrinsic risk attitudes are two important elements characterizing the vicious cycle of poverty associated with rural households in developing countries. Recent empirical studies suggest that adverse shocks—a key driver of poverty—can trigger substantial changes in the risk attitudes of poor people, leading to decisions that perpetuate their lives in poverty. Although the temporal variability of risk attitudes is a controversial topic, the literature advocating the temporal variability of risk attitudes suggests that covariate shocks, such as natural disasters, alter risk attitudes over time, whereas idiosyncratic shocks show no such significant impact.This paper aims to test the temporal stability of risk attitudes in rural households in Thailand and Vietnam to determine whether this pattern—covariate shocks that affect risk attitudes and idiosyncratic shocks that do not—can be confirmed for these households. I use an exogenous measure of shocks to explain temporal variation in risk attitudes. Thus, I estimate variation in consumption using a multilevel model in which variation in consumption at the individual level serves as a proxy for idiosyncratic shocks, while variation in consumption at the aggregate level is used to measure covariate shocks.My study finds temporal variability in risk attitudes that is driven by covariate shocks in Vietnam and—in contrast to past research—by idiosyncratic shocks in Thailand.The results suggest that Vietnamese respondents may be better in insuring idiosyncratic risks for example through safety nets, while mutual insurance across individuals does not seem to work well in Thailand. In addition, results indicate that the mutual insurance problem in Thailand seems to increase in wealth.The differences that I find between Thailand and Vietnam and across poverty types correspond to the difference in political systems and consequently the focus of socio-political measures. Thailand’s recent political volatility and the growing lack of social cohesion in Thai society support these findings.
登录
查看更多内容
2011 年洪水的影响以及洪水管理对泰国家庭的影响
影响因子：
5.3
作者：
Nipon Poaponsakorn;Pitsom Meethom;Kamphol Pantakua
通讯作者：
Kamphol Pantakua
风险感知维度：影响消费者对金融风险理解和评价的因素
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
I. Vlaev;Nick Chater 1;Neil Stewart
通讯作者：
Neil Stewart
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kimura;Fukunari
通讯作者：
Fukunari
贫困和脆弱性
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1994
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Morduch
通讯作者：
J. Morduch
效用测量：信号、噪声和偏差
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1992
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
P. Schoemaker;J. Hershey
通讯作者：
J. Hershey