Statistical techniques to emulate dynamic building simulations for overheating analyses in future probabilistic climates
Statistical techniques to emulate dynamic building simulations for overheating analyses in future probabilistic climates
复制标题
模拟动态建筑模拟的统计技术，用于未来概率气候中的过热分析
DOI：
10.1080/19401493.2010.531144
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Patidar S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Patidar S
随着对气候变化的预测变得更加详细和复杂，分析这些预测对建筑物性能的影响将变得更加复杂。作为低碳未来项目的一部分，这项研究提出了一种方法，将最新的2009年英国气候预测（本质上是概率性的）整合到动态建筑模拟计算中。这种方法提供了一种可能性，在对建筑物过热的分析中，建筑设计师可以以概率的方式评估建筑物未来的热舒适性，并通过各种气候情景告知该建筑物是否不适合作为工作/生活环境的风险分析。为了减少这种分析的计算需求，提出了一系列统计操作和近似值，以大大减少使用这种气候预测时所需的计算量。由此产生的工具，本质上是使用线性滤波技术和回归捕捉复杂模拟模型的行为，并成功验证了从建筑模拟软件中获得的国内建筑案例研究结果，包括应用了可能抵消预测过热的特定适应方案的建筑版本。
As projections of climate change become more detailed and sophisticated, analysing the effects of these projections on, for example, building performance will become more complex. This study, as part of the Low Carbon Futures project, proposes a method for integrating the latest UK Climate Projections 2009, which are probabilistic in nature, into dynamic building simulation calculations. This methodology offers the possibility that, in an analysis of overheating in buildings, it will be viable for a building designer to assess future thermal comfort of a building in a probabilistic way, with various climate scenarios informing a risk analysis of whether that building will become unsuitable as a working/living environment. To reduce the computational requirements of such an analysis, a series of statistical manipulations and approximations are proposed that serve to reduce substantially the amount of computation that would otherwise be necessary when using such climate projections. The resulting tool, which in essence captures the behaviour of complex simulation models using linear filtering techniques and regression, is successfully validated against results obtained from building simulation software results for a domestic building case-study, including versions of the building with specific adaptation scenarios applied that might offset the predicted overheating.
登录
查看更多内容
ESP-r 灵活解决方案方法及其在未来技术领域开发中的应用回顾
影响因子：
2
作者：
Joseph Andrew Clarke;Nicolas Kelly;Dechao Tang
通讯作者：
Dechao Tang
英格兰南部房屋的空调能源使用
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
J. He;A. Young;A. Pathan;T. Oreszczyn
通讯作者：
T. Oreszczyn
影响因子：
7.4
作者：
Coley, David;Kershaw, Tristan
通讯作者：
Kershaw, Tristan
调查现有气候变化导致英国住宅过热的可能性
影响因子：
9
作者：
A. Peacock;D. Jenkins;D. Kane
通讯作者：
D. Kane