Spatial age-period-cohort analysis of hepatitis B risk in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2019.
Spatial age-period-cohort analysis of hepatitis B risk in Xinjiang from 2006 to 2019.
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DOI：
10.3389/fpubh.2023.1171516
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Wang, Kai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Yijia;Xie, Na;Li, Fengjun;Wang, Zhe;Ding, Shuzhen;Hu, Xijian;Wang, Kai
关键词：
目的了解新疆96个区县B型肝炎的时空分布和流行特征，为B型肝炎的防治提供参考。基于2006 - 2019年新疆96个区县B型肝炎发病数据，运用全局趋势分析方法表征疾病的空间变异性，并运用空间自相关和时空聚集度分析探讨B型肝炎的空间聚集性，识别高风险地区和时段。为进一步探讨年龄、时期、出生队列效应和空间分布对B型肝炎发病风险的影响，建立了基于集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似（INLA）的空间年龄-时期-队列模型，并采用和为零的约束条件避免了模型的不可识别性问题。新疆B型肝炎发病风险呈现由西向东、由北向南递增的趋势，空间异质性和时空扫描统计结果显示新疆乙型肝炎发病风险呈现5个聚集区。空间年龄-时期-队列模型显示B型肝炎的平均风险有两个高峰，分别在[25，30）岁和[50，55）岁。随着时间的推移，B型肝炎发病的平均风险在1左右上下波动，出生队列的平均疾病风险呈现增加-减少-稳定的趋势。从年龄、时期、队列效应等因素分析，新疆B型肝炎高发区为天山区、新市区、水磨沟区、昌吉市、阿克苏市、喀什市、库尔勒市、且末县、岳普湖县。根据时空效应项，发现新疆部分区县存在影响B型肝炎发病率的不可观测变量。应重视B型肝炎的时空分布特点及高危人群。建议相关疾病预防控制中心在关注中老年人的同时，加强青年人B型肝炎防控，并加强对高风险地区的预防和监测。
The objective of this study was to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis B in 96 districts and counties of Xinjiang and to give useful information for hepatitis B prevention and treatment. Based on the incidence data of hepatitis B in 96 districts and counties of Xinjiang from 2006 to 2019, the global trend analysis method was used to characterize the spatial variability of the disease, and the spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal aggregation analysis were used to explore the spatial clustering of hepatitis B and to identify high-risk areas and periods. The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA)-based spatial age-period-cohort model was established to further explore the influence of age, period, birth queue effect, and spatial distribution on the incidence risk of hepatitis B, and sum-to-zero constraint was adopted to avoid the issue of model unrecognition. The risk of hepatitis B in Xinjiang is increasing from west to east and from north to south, with spatial heterogeneity and spatio-temporal scanning statistics yielding five clustering areas. The spatial age-period-cohort model showed two peaks in the average risk of hepatitis B, at [25,30) years old and [50,55) years old, respectively. The mean risk of hepatitis B incidence fluctuated up and down around 1 with time, and the average risk of disease by birth cohort displayed an increasing-decreasing-stabilizing trend. Taking age, period, and cohort effect into consideration, it was found that the areas with a high risk of hepatitis B are Tianshan District, Xinshi District, Shuimogou District, Changji City, Aksu City, Kashi City, Korla City, Qiemo County and Yopurga County in Xinjiang. According to the spatio-temporal effect item, it was found that there are unobserved variables affecting the incidence of hepatitis B in some districts and counties of Xinjiang. The spatio-temporal characteristics of hepatitis B and the high-risk population needed to be taken into attention. It is suggested that the relevant disease prevention and control centers should strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis B among young people while paying attention to middle-aged and older adult people, and strengthening the prevention and monitoring of high-risk areas.
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiaa668
发表时间：
2021-09-30
期刊：
The Journal of infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Pattyn J;Hendrickx G;Vorsters A;Van Damme P
通讯作者：
Van Damme P
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Chernyavskiy, Pavel;Little, Mark P.;Rosenberg, Philip S.
通讯作者：
Rosenberg, Philip S.
影响因子：
0.8
作者：
Kulldorff, M
通讯作者：
Kulldorff, M
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Prado Junior JC;Medronho RA
通讯作者：
Medronho RA
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Oh CM;Jung KW;Won YJ;Shin A;Kong HJ;Lee JS
通讯作者：
Lee JS