The interaction of seasonal forcing and immunity and the resonance dynamics of malaria.
The interaction of seasonal forcing and immunity and the resonance dynamics of malaria.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2009.0178
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发表时间：
2010-02-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Boots M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Childs DZ;Boots M
理论强调了内在因素如宿主免疫和外在驱动因素如气候在决定疾病动态方面的重要性。特别是，季节性可能导致流行的多年周期，但这种可能性取决于获得性免疫的作用。包括疟疾在内的一些疾病的免疫力介于经典的易感染-感染-消除和易感染-感染-易感模型之间。在这里，我们调查的一般条件，促进亚谐共振行为，可能导致多年周期的一般疟疾动力学模型。利用两种互补的方法来分岔分析，我们表明，共振促进的过程缩短传染期的长度和次谐波周期有利于在传输的情况下，具有较强的季节性，但在中间水平的地方病。我们讨论了我们的研究结果的影响，了解长期疟疾数据集的流行模式，从肯尼亚显示多年周期和一个从泰国，不讨论治疗的可能影响。
Theory has emphasized the importance of both intrinsic factors such as host immunity and extrinsic drivers such as climate in determining disease dynamics. In particular, seasonality may lead to multi-annual cycles in prevalence, but the likelihood of this depends on the role of acquired immunity. Some diseases including malaria have immunity that falls between the classic susceptible–infectious–removed and susceptible–infectious–susceptible models. Here, we investigate the general conditions promoting the subharmonic resonance behaviour that may lead to multi-annual cycles in a general malaria dynamical model. Utilizing two complementary approaches to bifurcation analyses, we show that resonance is promoted by processes shortening the length of the infectious period and that subharmonic cycles are favoured in situations with strong seasonality in transmission but at intermediate levels of endemicity. We discuss the implications of our results for understanding prevalence patterns in long-term malaria datasets from Kenya that show multi-annual cycles and one from Thailand that does not and discuss the possible implications of treatment.
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