Solar cycle 24: what is the Sun up to?
Solar cycle 24: what is the Sun up to?
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太阳周期24：太阳在做什么？
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-4004.2012.53309.x
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Lockwood M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lockwood M
2012年3月，第24个太阳活动周期出现了第一次太阳和地磁扰动。但这些事件最值得注意的是，与太空时代的其他事件相比，它们是多么的不起眼，仅仅因为太阳一直如此安静而引起注意。这是一个异常低和长期存在的太阳活动周期最小值，因此目前的周期看起来可能会延长1985年左右开始的太阳活动长期下降，甚至可能在40年内导致类似于蒙德最小值的条件，这对太阳-地球科学，减轻空间-天气危害，甚至可能对某些地区和季节的气候产生影响。在第24个太阳活动周期（SC 24）开始之前，对太阳黑子数量峰值的预测在42-185之间（Pesnell 2008），考虑到SC 13到SC 23的观测值为65-208，这是一个很大的变化（见表1）。然而，SC 23和SC 24之间的最低点，至少与最近的其他最低点相比，异常深和寿命长，太阳活动随后恢复非常缓慢。这可以用两种方式来解释：SC24将与其前身相似，但有一个异常延迟的启动，或者它像往常一样启动，但很弱。这一讨论对日地科学和减轻空间气象影响（如卫星和飞机电子设备的损坏和故障）具有重要意义（Dyer等人，2003年），空间健康危害（洛克伍德和哈普古德2007年）或在跨极飞行期间（Mertens等人，2010年，Barnard等人，2011年），以及配电网中断（Hapgood 2011）;此外，所有这些都有潜在的连锁效应，如服务损失和工业生产损失，这是保险和再保险行业关注的问题（Hapgood和Thompson，2010年）。一个弱周期将是1985年开始的长期衰退的一部分（洛克伍德和弗罗里希2007），这可能会使太阳活动恢复到道尔顿极小期（c. 1790-1830），甚至蒙德极小期（c。1655-1715）（洛克伍德等人，2011）。洛克伍德（2010）估计，在40年和150年内回到蒙德极小条件的概率分别为8%和45%。
March 2012 brought the first solar and geomagnetic disturbances of any note during solar cycle 24. But what was perhaps most remarkable about these events was how very unremarkable they were compared to others during the space age, attracting attention only because the Sun has been so quiet. This follows an exceptionally low and long-lived solar cycle minimum and so the current cycle looks likely to extend a long-term decline in solar activity that started around 1985 and could even lead to conditions similar to the Maunder Minimum within 40 years from now, with implications for solar–terrestrial science, the mitigation of space-weather hazards and maybe even for climate in certain regions and seasons. Predictions of the peak sunspot number during solar cycle 24 (SC24), made before it began, were in the range 42–185 (Pesnell 2008), a wide variation considering that observed values for SC13 to SC23 were 65–208 (see table 1). However, the minimum between SC23 and SC24 was, at least compared to other recent minima, unusually deep and long-lived and solar activity has subsequently been very slow to recover. This can be interpreted in two ways: that SC24 will be similar to its predecessor but had an unusually delayed start, or that it started as usual but is weak. This discussion has important implications for solar–terrestrial science and for the mitigation of space-weather effects such as damage and malfunction of satellite and aircraft electronics (Dyer et al. 2003), health hazards in space (Lockwood and Hapgood 2007) or during transpolar flights (Mertens et al. 2010, Barnard et al. 2011), and disruption to power distribution grids (Hapgood 2011); in addition, all of the above have potential knock-on effects such as lost service and lost industrial production, and are of concern to the insurance and re-insurance industries (Hapgood and Thompson 2010). A weak cycle would be part of a long-term decline that began in 1985 (Lockwood and Fröhlich 2007) and that could return solar activity to levels last seen during the Dalton Minimum (c. 1790–1830), or even the Maunder Minimum (c. 1655–1715)(Lockwood et al. 2011). Lockwood (2010) estimated that the probabilities of a return to Maunder Minimum conditions within 40 and 150 years are 8% and 45%, respectively.
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影响因子：
18.3
作者：
Ineson, Sarah;Scaife, Adam A.;Haigh, Joanna D.
通讯作者：
Haigh, Joanna D.
1958 年之前大型太阳高能粒子事件发生频率较高，并且在不久的将来可能会重复发生
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
K. Mccracken
通讯作者：
K. Mccracken
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
T. Woollings;M. Lockwood;G. Masato;C. Bell;L. Gray
通讯作者：
T. Woollings;M. Lockwood;G. Masato;C. Bell;L. Gray
渐进式太阳高能粒子事件的调查
影响因子：
--
作者：
L. Barnard;M. Lockwood
通讯作者：
M. Lockwood
太阳粒子对飞机高度辐射环境增强的计算和观测。
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
C. Dyer;F. Lei;S. Clucas;D. Smart;M. Shea
通讯作者：
M. Shea