The Economic Value of Climate Information in Adaptation Decisions: Learning in the Sea-level Rise and Coastal Infrastructure Context
The Economic Value of Climate Information in Adaptation Decisions: Learning in the Sea-level Rise and Coastal Infrastructure Context
复制标题
气候信息在适应决策中的经济价值：海平面上升和沿海基础设施背景下的学习
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.03.027
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
W. Gehrels
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Dawson;A. Hunt;J. Shaw;W. Gehrels
在适应气候变化的背景下，传统的投资评估方法受到了批评。对适应备选办法的经济评估需要明确纳入未来气候条件的不确定性，并应认识到，随着时间的推移，由于理解和学习的改进，不确定性可能会减少。实物期权分析(ROA)是一种评估工具，旨在结合灵活性和学习的概念，依赖概率数据来表征不确定性。它也是一个相对资源密集型的决策支持工具。我们测试了连续几代真实生活气候情景的使用是否可以产生学习，以及在多大程度上可以产生学习，以及如何通过在沿海经济适应决策中采用ROA原则来处理非概率不确定性。使用相对简单的ROA形式对英国脆弱的沿海铁路基础设施进行评估，以及连续两次英国气候评估，我们估计了与利用最新海平面上升信息相关的价值。学习的价值可以与适应投资的资本成本相提并论，并可用来说明学习在海岸保护和其他适应背景下的价值的潜在规模。
Traditional methods of investment appraisal have been criticized in the context of climate change adaptation. Economic assessment of adaptation options needs to explicitly incorporate the uncertainty of future climate conditions and should recognise that uncertainties may diminish over time as a result of improved understanding and learning. Real options analysis (ROA) is an appraisal tool developed to incorporate concepts of flexibility and learning that relies on probabilistic data to characterise uncertainties. It is also a relatively resource-intensive decision support tool. We test whether, and to what extent, learning can result from the use of successive generations of real life climate scenarios, and how non-probabilistic uncertainties can be handled through adapting the principles of ROA in coastal economic adaptation decisions. Using a relatively simple form of ROA on a vulnerable piece of coastal rail infrastructure in the United Kingdom, and two successive UK climate assessments, we estimate the values associated with utilising up-dated information on sea-level rise. The value of learning can be compared to the capital cost of adaptation investment, and may be used to illustrate the potential scale of the value of learning in coastal protection, and other adaptation contexts.
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough