A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation.
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Willeit P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iftekhar EN;Priesemann V;Balling R;Bauer S;Beutels P;Calero Valdez A;Cuschieri S;Czypionka T;Dumpis U;Glaab E;Grill E;Hanson C;Hotulainen P;Klimek P;Kretzschmar M;Krüger T;Krutzinna J;Low N;Machado H;Martins C;McKee M;Mohr SB;Nassehi A;Perc M;Petelos E;Pickersgill M;Prainsack B;Rocklöv J;Schernhammer E;Staines A;Szczurek E;Tsiodras S;Van Gucht S;Willeit P
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行在未来数月和数年将如何发展？根据专家调查，我们研究了可能影响欧洲COVID-19大流行的关键因素。这些挑战和发展将在很大程度上取决于国家和全球疫苗接种计划的进展，关注变体（VOC）的出现和传播，以及公众对非药物干预措施（NPI）的反应。短期内，许多人仍未接种疫苗，VOCs继续出现和传播，预计流动性和人口混合将增加。因此，过早过多地取消限制可能会带来另一波破坏性浪潮。尽管二零二一年夏季疫苗接种进展及室内混合减少，导致传播机会减少，但此挑战仍然存在。到2021年秋季，室内活动的增加可能会再次加速传播，而必要的重新引入NPI可能会过于缓慢。如果疫苗接种水平不够高，发病率可能会再次大幅上升，可能会填满重症监护病房。因此，仍有必要保持适度的、适应性的非营利机构水平。这些流行病学方面与经济、社会和健康相关后果相结合，为COVID-19大流行的未来提供了更全面的视角。
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Bargain O;Aminjonov U
通讯作者：
Aminjonov U
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
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DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00290-5
发表时间：
2021-11
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bager P;Wohlfahrt J;Fonager J;Rasmussen M;Albertsen M;Michaelsen TY;Møller CH;Ethelberg S;Legarth R;Button MSF;Gubbels S;Voldstedlund M;Mølbak K;Skov RL;Fomsgaard A;Krause TG;Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium
通讯作者：
Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium
影响因子：
7
作者：
Cairney, Paul;Wellstead, Adam
通讯作者：
Wellstead, Adam
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.n834
发表时间：
2021-03-29
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Appleby, Louis
通讯作者：
Appleby, Louis