The Antarctic Peninsula Under a 1.5°C Global Warming Scenario
The Antarctic Peninsula Under a 1.5°C Global Warming Scenario
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全球变暖1.5℃情景下的南极半岛
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
David Vaughan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Martin Siegert;A. Atkinson;A. Banwell;M. Brandon;P. Convey;B. Davies;R. Downie;T. Edwards;B. Hubbard;G. Marshall;J. Rogelj;J. Rumble;J. Stroeve;David Vaughan
20世纪下半叶南极半岛变暖比南半球任何其他陆地环境都要大，并观察到了明显的冰冻圈和生物后果。在全球1.5摄氏度的情况下，南极半岛变暖可能会增加超过0摄氏度的天数，北部半岛每年有多达130天这样的天数。海洋湍流将增加，使环极地深水(CDW)变暖和变浅，将热量输送到海面和海岸边缘。冰川和冰盖海洋边缘的变薄和退缩预计将加速到陆地极限，从而增加冰山的产量，之后陆地上的冰川退缩可能会放缓。冰架将经历融水产量的持续增加和随之而来的结构变化，但不会很快发生地区性崩溃。海洋生物群可以以多种方式对气候变化做出反应，其影响因过去的资源开采活动而变得复杂。在过去的一个世纪里，在多个分类群中观察到了向南分布的变化，这种变化可能会继续下去。裸露的(无冰的)陆地区域将扩大，为本地和非本地生物提供新的栖息地，但可能会失去遗传多样性。虽然本土陆地生物群可能受益于温和的变暖，但对本土生物多样性的最大威胁来自非本土陆地物种。
Warming of the Antarctic Peninsula in the latter half of the 20th century was greater than any other terrestrial environment in the Southern Hemisphere, and obvious cryospheric and biological consequences have been observed. Under a global 1.5°C scenario, warming in the Antarctic Peninsula is likely increase the number of days above 0°C, with up to 130 of such days each year in the northern Peninsula. Ocean turbulence will increase, making the circumpolar deep water (CDW) both warmer and shallower, delivering heat to the sea surface and to coastal margins. Thinning and recession of marine margins of glaciers and ice caps is expected to accelerate to terrestrial limits, increasing iceberg production, after which glacier retreat may slow on land. Ice shelves will experience continued increase in meltwater production and consequent structural change, but not imminent regional collapses. Marine biota can respond in multiple ways to climatic changes, with effects complicated by past resource extraction activities. Southward distribution shifts have been observed in multiple taxa during the last century and these are likely to continue. Exposed (ice free) terrestrial areas will expand, providing new habitats for native and non-native organisms, but with a potential loss of genetic diversity. While native terrestrial biota are likely to benefit from modest warming, the greatest threat to native biodiversity is from non-native terrestrial species.
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影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Henley, Sian F.;Schofield, Oscar M.;Meredith, Michael P.
通讯作者：
Meredith, Michael P.
1.5和2.0℃升温下的中纬度大气环流响应及区域影响
影响因子：
7.3
作者：
Li C
通讯作者：
Li C
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
G. Williams;T. Maksym;J. Wilkinson;C. Kunz;Chris Murphy;Peter W. Kimball;Hanumant Singh
通讯作者：
G. Williams;T. Maksym;J. Wilkinson;C. Kunz;Chris Murphy;Peter W. Kimball;Hanumant Singh
影响因子：
1.6
作者：
Luckman, Adrian;Elvidge, Andrew;Barrand, Nicholas E.
通讯作者：
Barrand, Nicholas E.