Stochastic modeling of solar irradiance during hurricanes
Stochastic modeling of solar irradiance during hurricanes
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飓风期间太阳辐照度的随机建模
DOI：
10.1007/s00477-021-02154-2
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Xi, Dazhi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ceferino, Luis;Lin, Ning;Xi, Dazhi
太阳能发电采用的空前增长表明，太阳能可以在短短几十年内成为我们电网现代清洁能源的重要来源。尽管太阳能对发电的重要性日益增加，但很少有研究提出评估极端自然事件期间太阳能发电的模型。特别是，飓风带来的环境条件可能会大大减少太阳能发电，即使太阳能基础设施仍然充分发挥作用。在这里，我们提出了一个随机模型来量化飓风期间的辐照度衰减。该模型是通过对合并了历史全球水平辐照度和大西洋飓风活动的数据集进行混合效应回归而开发的。数据显示，由于吸收和反射光的光学厚云层，较高飓风类别和较接近飓风中心的辐照度衰减较高。因此，我们的模型将辐照度衰减描述为飓风类别和根据飓风大小归一化的到飓风中心的距离的函数。我们测试了四种具有不同复杂性的辐照度衰减函数，并根据 Akaike 信息准则对它们的性能进行排名。我们的分析表明，飓风最外层闭合等压线半径作为标准化距离的尺寸度量表现最佳。为了展示该方法的适用性，我们使用它对美国南部的合成风暴从产生到消散期间的辐照度进行随机模拟。我们的结果表明，即使太阳能基础设施未受损，佛罗里达州迈阿密戴德市的大部分地区在 4 级飓风期间发电量也会减少 70% 以上。此外，发电损失也可能持续三天以上，如果太阳能电池板无法正常工作，这一时间将会加剧。我们的后续研究将所提出的模型与电池板脆弱性函数相结合，为预测飓风期间随时间变化的太阳能发电提供分析功能。
The unprecedented growth of solar generation adoption indicates that solar can become a significant source of modern and clean energy for our power grids in just a few decades. Despite solar’s growing criticality for generation, few studies have proposed models to assess solar generation during extreme natural events. In particular, hurricanes bring environmental conditions that may drastically reduce solar generation even if solar infrastructure remains fully functional. Here, we present a stochastic model to quantify irradiance decay during hurricanes. The model is developed through mixed-effect regression on a dataset that merges historical Global Horizontal Irradiance and Atlantic hurricane activity. The data showed higher irradiance decays for higher hurricane categories and closer to the hurricane center due to optically thick clouds that absorb and reflect light. Accordingly, our model describes the irradiance decay as a function of hurricane category and the distance to the hurricane center normalized by the hurricane size. We test four irradiance decay functions with varying complexities and rank their performance based on the Akaike Information Criterion. Our analysis demonstrates that the hurricane’s radius of outermost closed isobar performs best as the size metric for normalizing distance. To showcase the methodology’s applicability, we use it to generate stochastic simulations of irradiance in the Southern United States during a synthetic storm from its genesis to its dissipation. Our results show that generation in Miami-Dade, Florida, can decrease beyond 70% in large regions during a category-4 hurricane even if the solar infrastructure is undamaged. Furthermore, generation losses can also last beyond three days, and this timeframe will be exacerbated if solar panels become non-functional. Our follow-up study integrates the proposed model with panel fragility functions to offer analysis capabilities for forecasting time-varying solar generation during hurricanes.
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
A. Kokhanovsky;W. V. Hoyningen
通讯作者：
W. V. Hoyningen
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough
影响因子：
6.8
作者：
AKAIKE, H
通讯作者：
AKAIKE, H
影响因子：
15.9
作者：
Kepa Solaun;E. Cerdá
通讯作者：
Kepa Solaun;E. Cerdá
住宅社区共享屋顶太阳能系统的抗灾价值
影响因子：
5
作者：
Siddharth Patel;L. Ceferino;Chenying Liu;Anne Kiremidjian;R. Rajagopal
通讯作者：
R. Rajagopal