Increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature under climate change.
Increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature under climate change.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-33217-0
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发表时间：
2018-10-04
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Gouhier TC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Di Cecco GJ;Gouhier TC
了解环境条件的时空变化对于确定气候变化如何影响生态群落具有重要意义。温度的时空自相关可以通过增加汇种群不利条件的持续时间和强度，并通过同步空间隔离的种群来破坏空间救援效应，从而对群落结构和持久性产生强烈影响。尽管历史数据记录了温度的时空自相关性增加，但对气候变化将如何影响这些趋势知之甚少。我们分析了21个大气环流模式在常规碳排放情景下的日气温数据，以量化1871年至2099年的时空自相关模式。随着时间的推移，空间自相关和时间自相关均呈增加趋势，但时间自相关趋势存在显著的区域差异。此外，我们发现在2030年前后，空间自相关与时间的关系出现了一致的断点，表明在21世纪下半叶，空间自相关的增长速度加快。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，在气候变化下，生态种群的灭绝风险可能会增加，因为温度的时空自相关性增加可能会侵蚀时空避难所。
Understanding spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions is important to determine how climate change will impact ecological communities. The spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature can have strong impacts on community structure and persistence by increasing the duration and the magnitude of unfavorable conditions in sink populations and disrupting spatial rescue effects by synchronizing spatially segregated populations. Although increases in spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature have been documented in historical data, little is known about how climate change will impact these trends. We examined daily air temperature data from 21 General Circulation Models under the business-as-usual carbon emission scenario to quantify patterns of spatial and temporal autocorrelation between 1871 and 2099. Although both spatial and temporal autocorrelation increased over time, there was significant regional variation in the temporal autocorrelation trends. Additionally, we found a consistent breakpoint in the relationship between spatial autocorrelation and time around the year 2030, indicating an acceleration in the rate of increase of the spatial autocorrelation over the second half of the 21st century. Overall, our results suggest that ecological populations might experience elevated extinction risk under climate change because increased spatial and temporal autocorrelation of temperature is expected to erode both spatial and temporal refugia.
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影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Inchausti, P;Halley, J
通讯作者：
Halley, J
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0802430105
发表时间：
2008-09-23
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Dakos, Vasilis;Scheffer, Marten;Held, Hermann
通讯作者：
Held, Hermann
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Gouhier, Tarik C.;Guichard, Frederic;Gonzalez, Andrew
通讯作者：
Gonzalez, Andrew
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
BROWN, JH;KODRICBROWN, A
通讯作者：
KODRICBROWN, A
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1997.0069
发表时间：
1997-04-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Heino, M;Kaitala, V;Lindstrom, J
通讯作者：
Lindstrom, J