Modelling to Quantify the Likelihood that Local Elimination of Transmission has Occurred Using Routine Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance Data.
Modelling to Quantify the Likelihood that Local Elimination of Transmission has Occurred Using Routine Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance Data.
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DOI：
10.1093/cid/ciab190
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发表时间：
2021-06-14
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Rock KS
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文献类型：
--
作者：
Davis CN;Castaño MS;Aliee M;Patel S;Miaka EM;Keeling MJ;Spencer SEF;Chitnis N;Rock KS
刚果民主共和国 (DRC) 的冈比亚人类非洲锥虫病 (gHAT) 消除计划定期通过被动监测和主动筛查收集病例数据，尽管在 2000 年代初曾流行，但一些地区已连续几年没有报告病例。我们使用适合纵向数据的数学模型来估计选定行政区域已经实现 gHAT 消除传播 (EOT) 的概率。我们研究了主动筛查覆盖率对传播模型估计确定性的影响，以及筛查在 EOT 测量中的作用。根据 2000-2016 年的数据，在南乌班吉省的 3 个示例卫生区中，我们发现到 2018 年实现 EOT 的可能性中等（>40%）。 Budjala 和 Mbaya 报告 2017-18 年期间病例数为零，这进一步将我们各自的估计值提高至 99.9% 和 99.6%（模型 S）以及 87.3% 和 92.1%（模型 W）。然而，Bominenge 最近有病例报告，如果 2021 年发现零病例，将大大提高我们在那里满足 EOT 的确定性（S 型为 99.0%，W 型为 88.5%）；如果当年筛查覆盖率达到 50%（S 型为 99.1%，W 型为 94.0%），这一数字可能会更高。我们演示了如何将常规监测数据与机械建模相结合来估计已实现 EOT 的可能性。随着 2030 年的临近，这种定量评估对于衡量当地 EOT 成就将变得越来越重要。
The gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) elimination programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) routinely collects case data through passive surveillance and active screening, with several regions reporting no cases for several years, despite being endemic in the early 2000s. We use mathematical models fitted to longitudinal data to estimate the probability that selected administrative regions have already achieved elimination of transmission (EOT) of gHAT. We examine the impact of active screening coverage on the certainty of model estimates for transmission and therefore the role of screening in the measurement of EOT. In 3 example health zones of Sud-Ubangi province, we find there is a moderate (>40%) probability that EOT has been achieved by 2018, based on 2000–2016 data. Budjala and Mbaya reported zero cases during 2017–18, and this further increases our respective estimates to 99.9% and 99.6% (model S) and to 87.3% and 92.1% (model W). Bominenge had recent case reporting, however, that if zero cases were found in 2021, it would substantially raise our certainty that EOT has been met there (99.0% for model S and 88.5% for model W); this could be higher with 50% coverage screening that year (99.1% for model S and 94.0% for model W). We demonstrate how routine surveillance data coupled with mechanistic modeling can estimate the likelihood that EOT has already been achieved. Such quantitative assessment will become increasingly important for measuring local achievement of EOT as 2030 approaches.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Jamonneau V;Ilboudo H;Kaboré J;Kaba D;Koffi M;Solano P;Garcia A;Courtin D;Laveissière C;Lingue K;Büscher P;Bucheton B
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Stone CM;Chitnis N
通讯作者：
Chitnis N
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Simarro, Pere P.;Cecchi, Giuliano;Jannin, Jean G.
通讯作者：
Jannin, Jean G.
DOI：
10.1016/s1474-4422(19)30082-1
发表时间：
2019-04-01
期刊：
The Lancet. Neurology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Burton, Adrian
通讯作者：
Burton, Adrian