Real-time investigation of measles epidemics with estimate of vaccine efficacy.
Real-time investigation of measles epidemics with estimate of vaccine efficacy.
复制标题
DOI：
10.7150/ijbs.4329
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
9.2
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ejima K;Omori R;Aihara K;Nishiura H
作为消除麻疹工作的一部分，评估疫苗接种计划和实时评估疫情动态是改善和加强控制的两项重要任务。本研究的目的是建立一种流行病学建模方法，可以应用于在个人水平上估计疫苗的效力，同时进行及时的流行病学调查。采用多变量更新过程模型描述疫苗接种历史对感染的时间演化，联合估计时间依赖的再生产数和疫苗效力。分析2007-08年日本爱知县麻疹加强监测数据，疫苗有效性估计为96.7%（95%置信区间：95.8，97.4）。使用年龄结构模型，5-19岁人群的疫苗效力小于0-4岁人群。年龄依赖性疫苗效力估计为再接种的目标年龄组提供了信息。由于估计方法可以依赖于现成的流行病学数据，所提出的模型有可能与常规监测相结合。
As part of measles elimination effort, evaluation of the vaccination program and real-time assessment of the epidemic dynamics constitute two important tasks to improve and strengthen the control. The present study aimed to develop an epidemiological modeling method which can be applied to estimating the vaccine efficacy at an individual level while conducting the timely investigation of the epidemic. The multivariate renewal process model was employed to describe the temporal evolution of infection by vaccination history, jointly estimating the time-dependent reproduction number and the vaccine efficacy. Analyzing the enhanced surveillance data of measles in Aichi prefecture, Japan from 2007-08, the vaccine efficacy was estimated at 96.7% (95% confidence interval: 95.8, 97.4). Using an age structured model, the vaccine efficacy among those aged from 5-19 years was shown to be smaller than that among those from 0-4 years. The age-dependent vaccine efficacy estimate informs the age-groups to be targeted for revaccination. Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Roberts MG;Nishiura H
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Walllinga, J;Heijne, JCM;Kretzschmar, M
通讯作者：
Kretzschmar, M
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
de Roos, AM;Leonardsson, K;Mittelbach, GG
通讯作者：
Mittelbach, GG
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Farrington, CP;Kanaan, MN;Gay, NJ
通讯作者：
Gay, NJ
影响因子：
2
作者：
Nishiura, Hiroshi;Yan, Ping;Sleeman, Candace K.;Mode, Charles J.
通讯作者：
Mode, Charles J.